Whether you call it “Glicked” or “Wickiator” (or even Justin Chang’s preferred “Wadiator,” which sounds to me like a lot of hot air), this weekend’s simultaneous arrival of Gladiator II and Wicked feels like the closest thing we’ve seen to a true heir of “Barbenheimer.” The comparison is inevitable — two huge films releasing on the same day, one girl-coded and one boy-coded — and perfectly reasonable, as long as you abandon any assumption that they will match or surpass the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon. These films can be very, very successful without beating their predecessors’ combined $235 million opening weekend. (Or, it must be said, their level of quality.)
The same goes at the Oscars, where Barbie and Oppenheimer were the defining event of the 2024 awards season. The duo combined for 21 nominations and eight wins, including a Best Picture prize for Oppie. No matter how well they perform, Wicked and Gladiator probably aren’t coming close to that tally. That’s okay!
Now that expectations have been set, let’s focus on the optimistic case. Putting aside the comparison to last season’s two-headed colossus, how well can “Wickiator” do this awards season?
Both are arriving at precisely the right time. In this strike-marred season, consensus had it that the fall-festival crop was slightly weaker this year. Now, alongside Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Gladiator seem set to give the Oscars field a fresh dose of blockbuster oomph. Of the pair, Wicked’s the one with stronger reviews and stronger box-office tracking, so that’s the one that’s making my Best Picture ten at the moment. But I wouldn’t be gobsmacked if Gladiator snuck in, as well: It’s an old-school masculine epic that could appeal to the Academy’s “meat and potatoes” voters, a bloc powerful enough to get films like Top Gun: Maverick and Ford v Ferrari into the Best Picture category in the past.
Prospects are more mixed elsewhere above the line. The directors branch is notoriously snobby, which will be a tough row to hoe for Wicked’s Jon M. Chu, who got his start directing films in the Step Up and G.I. Joe franchises. Gladiator II’s Ridley Scott has some “overdue” equity — he’s never won an Oscar, not even when the first Gladiator won Best Picture — but Scott hasn’t been nominated for directing since Black Hawk Down, and this branch’s recent preference for highbrow auteurs suggests their tastes have moved on. Screenplay is a slightly better bet, as there are spots up for grabs in the Adapted race, where both Wicked and Gladiator are slotted. But at a combined run time of over five hours, some might suggest these movies should have featured more adaptation.
Fortunately, both campaigns can count on a powerful supporting performance to bolster their bids. Denzel Washington has been almost unanimously acclaimed as the best part of Gladiator II. “You start to root for his relentless climb to the top,” Vulture’s Alison Willmore says of his turn as a political schemer who sports more rings than the human hand should be able to handle. Washington feels due more accolades; depending on how the race shakes out, he could even contend for the trophy that would mark his entry into Oscar’s three-timers’ club.
Wicked’s Ariana Grande feels less assured, if only because she’s more of an awards-season interloper than Washington. The pop star is awfully winning her first major film role — she had cameos in Zoolander 2 and Don’t Look Up — turning in a performance that, as our own Bilge Ebiri writes, “gives real comic shape to Glinda’s popular-girl frivolity.” With Wicked’s Oscar buzz growing by the day, more pundits expect Grande to get in than not.
Things are also looking up for Grande’s onscreen frenemy, Cynthia Erivo. “Erivo can hit the notes no problem, but it’s the work she does in close-up” that seals the deal for Variety’s Peter Debruge: Her “subtler approach invites audiences under the character’s (green-tinted) skin.” Erivo’s arrival means an already stacked Best Actress race just got even tougher. I can’t say the same for Gladiator II’s Paul Mescal, whose middling notices indicate he may not factor into a relatively weak Best Actor field.
While the two movies will steer clear of each other in the acting races, it’s in the craft categories where they’ll truly go head-to-head. Here, too, Wicked looks to have the advantage, as it should benefit from the below-the-line races’ own form of gender essentialism. The musical looks to be the early frontrunner in female-friendly categories like Costume Design and Production Design. (Depending how bullish you are on The Substance, maybe Makeup & Hairstyling, too.) Gladiator II could compete there, too, but its best chance at gold will come in male-coded races like Sound and Visual Effects, where it’s up against Dune: Part Two.
As for whether either of these films can follow Oppenheimer’s path to Oscar glory, a part two or a part one hasn’t won Best Picture since the Godfather films back in the ’70s. So were that to happen, it would certainly be defying pundits’ expectations as well as gravity.
Oscar Futures: Tangled Up in … Gold?
Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
A Complete Unknown
Something is happening here, and I do know what it is. While official reviews of James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic are still embargoed, I can tell you that the movie is better than anxious Dylanites may have expected. (If they can get past the fact it’s a very normal film about an abnormal man.) The film’s title isn’t just obeying the rule that says biopics must be named after an album or a famous lyric: To its credit, A Complete Unknown doesn’t try to solve or explain this most elusive of artists. Of course, it helps that Mangold can simply cut to a musical number whenever he wants. The same way Wicked benefits greatly from ending with “Defying Gravity,” this is a film with the equivalent of a dozen “Defying Gravity”s.
Wicked
Before Wicked’s review embargo lifted, I would often encounter online cynics convinced the movie’s positive buzz was an act of corporate gaslighting by Universal. Not so! Reviews went up this week, and they’re almost as positive as the first wave of influencer reactions. Wicked superfan Richard Lawson says the film “does justice to the spirit of the stage musical, balancing its silliness with its pathos, its magical flights of fancy with its more grounded entreaties about tolerance and decency.” With Wicked on track for a $130-million-plus opening, a Best Picture field that was skewing arthouse looks to have added one more blockbuster to the mix.
Current Predix
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5, Sing Sing, Wicked
Best Director
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Though Mangold has never been nominated for his direction, he’s steered a number of actors to Oscars recognition, including two winners in Angelina Jolie and Reese Witherspoon. His work on A Complete Unknown is in line with previous efforts: solid, proficient filmmaking that doesn’t draw attention to itself. If he couldn’t get nom’d for Ford v Ferrari, I can’t see Mangold getting in this year. However, I suspect that come March, one of his actors will have snuck inside the Dolby with the Mangold nom again.
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
“Anybody expecting Chu to breathe life into Oz the way Peter Jackson did with Middle-earth in his Lord of the Rings epics will surely be disappointed,” writes our own Bilge Ebiri. But “when Chu does sink his teeth into the numbers, something wonderful can emerge.” If only the Globes had a separate category for Musical/Comedy directors, too.
Current Predix
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Slay, Timmy, slay. Chalamet had years to prepare to play Dylan — the project was originally announced in early 2020 — and he put the long delay to good use. At first it’s jarring to hear That Voice come out of That Face, but once you get accustomed to it, it’s hard not to be impressed by the way he immerses himself in the part, laying bare the petulance that lurks underneath Dylan’s genius. I’ve been looking for someone to take the fifth spot in Best Actor. Knowing the Academy’s affinity for music biopics, it may be him, babe.
Hugh Grant, Heretic
The consensus from those who attended last weekend’s Governors Awards was that Grant brought down the house with a zingy speech introducing honorary Oscar winner Richard Curtis. (“Would we call it an Oscar?”) He’d probably need to have given Lincoln’s Second Inaugural to have a sniff at getting the Academy to consider his A24 horror film, but maybe there were some Independent Spirit Awards voters in attendance?
Current Predix
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
No one fared better from the end of the Wicked embargo than Cynthia Erivo. While pundits and influencers gravitated toward the glitter of Grande, actual film critics are drawn to Erivo’s emotional depth. “She is the film’s Rushmore: charismatic, haughty, and vulnerable,” says Peter Bradshaw. “Her face exerts a planetary pull on everything else onscreen and an impossible thing to look away from.” It’s almost as if, without words we communicate with our eyes.
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
A box-office tidbit courtesy of my colleague Joe Reid: Sony Pictures Classics put The Outrun back in nearly 150 screens, hoping to take advantage of the pre-”Wickiator” lull. Even that couldn’t get the Orkney addiction drama to crack the $1 million mark. Can Ronan’s candidacy, er, outpace her film’s underperformance?
Current Predix
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora
Best Supporting Actor
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Jackson starred in the original 1987 production of The Piano Lesson, then returned to the play for its 2022 Broadway revival. (Most of whose cast reprises their roles for the film.) Before the season began, everything appeared to be lining up for the veteran to receive his first nomination since Pulp Fiction. But the process of adapting stage to screen robs Jackson’s character of his big moment, our Bilge Ebiri writes: “Presented with intercutting flashbacks, the gist of his story doesn’t lose its power, but the words somehow do. It becomes less about the man telling the story and more about the story itself.” As the movie hits Netflix this weekend, buzz has been dwindling.
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Norton has a reputation for being somewhat prickly, but the part of Pete Seeger unlocks the actor’s inner dork, which he lets fly for the first time since Moonrise Kingdom. Folkies may quibble with the film’s depiction of Seeger — he symbolizes the hidebound scene disrupted by Dylan — and I don’t know if there’s enough heft here for a nom. But as a human Kermit the Frog, he’s a gee-golly delight.
Current Predix
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Stanley Tucci, Conclave; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
A newcomer to the cast (she takes over from Broadway’s Danielle Brooks), Deadwyler gives the standout performance in a film that’s been rejiggered to privilege her character’s perspective. “Deadwyler’s electricity powers both her sensual sighs and the defiant speeches she makes,” says Robert Daniels, who proclaims her the film’s “heart and soul.” As with Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez, she’s arguably a co-lead. Still, I think this placement makes sense, since the film is an ensemble piece in which each character takes a turn in the spotlight. After her snub for Till we should never take a Deadwyler nom for granted, but this emphatic work deserves to make the Oscar five.
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
The Dylan biopic has a love triangle in which both women are the Betty. As a fictionalized stand-in for an early Dylan girlfriend, Elle Fanning plays a continuation of her Ginger & Rosa role, a socially conscious, easily wounded activist. But I was most struck by Barbaro, who nails not just Joan Baez’s moral backbone but also her bright, clear soprano. (Full disclosure: She, Chalamet, and I took lessons with the same vocal coach.) A Complete Unknown may share the Anora problem of having two supporting performances that crowd each other out, awards-wise. Nevertheless, for an actress I only know from Top Gun: Maverick, this is a real breakout moment.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Saoirse Ronan, Blitz; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
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