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What Next in Afghanistan?
•�June 23, 2021
•�900 Words •�258 Comments
[Epistemic status: Low, I don't know much about Afghanistan, nor does it interest me much (except for the fascination multiple empires seem to have in expending their treasure there]. There appears to be a near consensus that the Taliban will take over most of Afghanistan soon after the US withdrawal and that they will do... Read More
War Postponed, for Now
•�April 22, 2021
•�600 Words •�359 Comments
I have compared the current standoff in Donbass to a poker game. By amassing troops around Ukraine, Putin let it be known that a Ukrainian attack on Donbass would be - well, if not assuredly catastrophic, then at least extremely risky for its continued statehood. Ukraine could raise by going ahead with it anyway. It... Read More
War in Donbass Update
•�March 25, 2021
•�600 Words •�341 Comments
For various reasons I am upping my probability of intense fighting in the Donbass this year (probably this summer) to over 50%. The Ukrainian buildup on the border continues. Wheeling in all those guns and equipment and letting them stand idle is expensive. The Americans have sent a cargo ship which is unloading more equipment... Read More
The Year of Corona: Ten Megadeaths & the Crash of Western Supremacism
•�December 29, 2020
•�7,600 Words •�297 Comments
In this "summary" post on Corona 2020, I will cover some of the following. Recap what we know about Corona, what we have learned in the past year, and what policies should have been undertaken; The big picture of global excess mortality that is emerging for 2020; Discuss the vaccines, "vaccine geopolitics", and Corona's impact... Read More
Military Lessons of Karabakh War 2020
•�November 12, 2020
•�2,100 Words •�99 Comments
So it emerges that I was justified in posting this graph so often. At the end of the day, the blunt and banal facts of the matter were as follows: In 1992-94, Azerbaijan was a disorganized, demoralized, and dysfunctional state with a <50% advantage in comprehensive military power (CMP) over Armenia. In 2020, Azerbaijan was... Read More
Karabakh War 2020: 44 Days & Armenian Capitulation
•�November 12, 2020
•�1,000 Words •�45 Comments
The Karabakh War 2020 (archive) has drawn to an end with a complete Armenian military collapse only averted by a last-minute Russian intervention. Considering the battlefield situation, what is essentially still a return to the Madrid Principles (if on conditions much less favorable to the Armenians than would have been the case otherwise) was by... Read More
Biden Recognitions
•�November 8, 2020
•�300 Words •�66 Comments
The world map of Biden "recognitions" is quite instructive. No surprise that the core BlueGov-aligned vassals are tripping over themselves to congratulate and celebrate, happy at the prospect of the gushing service they are preparing to mete out as opposed to their sullen compliance during the Trump years. More notable, though less remarkable if you... Read More
Karabakh War 2020: Taking Stock 5 Days In
•�October 2, 2020
•�1,700 Words •�494 Comments
Just like the Balkan Wars before World War I, there are interesting lessons to be drawn from the conflict, and as such I find it rather fascinating - if not surprising, given the quality of our chattering class - that it has receiving such scant journalistic and analytical attention. This is not just an insurgency... Read More
Gas Realism
•�August 19, 2020
•�300 Words •�52 Comments
The centrality of "pipeline diplomacy"/"energy blackmail" to Russian FP is a common trope amongst journalists and "geopolitics analysts", alongside more recent buzzwords ("hybrid war", "Gerasimov doctrine", dezinformatsiya...). But it's always useful to pin down some hard facts/stats. (1) Share of natural gas as percentage of Russian exports: 6%. Historically hovers between 5%-10%. This isn't altogether... Read More
Political Compass on Lukashenkophilia
•�August 13, 2020
•�900 Words •�2 Comments
Stunning age differential on Russian view of events in Belarus, according to VCIOM poll. 33% of 60+ y/o's believe Lukashenko's 80% result was fully authentic, vs. just 3% of 18-24% y/o's. General background note: The past couple of years have seen an awning divide in chronological terms. While Putin was actually marginally more popular amongst... Read More
What Should Russia Do in Belarus? Play the Waiting Game.
•�August 13, 2020
•�900 Words •�48 Comments
Any Russian policy towards Belarus should take into account the following considerations: Lukashenko is not an ally or a friend. This does not describe a person who has accepted $100 billion worth of Russian oil/gas subsidies over the past decade, to end up doing military exercises with the Brits while denying Russian an airbase it... Read More
Why Belarus Isn't Ukraine
•�August 7, 2020
•�3,200 Words •�159 Comments
Night in Novogrudok, Belarus (2017) by Pavel Gamburg. Even though we tend to take it as a given, it isn't exactly obvious why Belarus should be so much more "Russophile" than the Ukraine. The lands of White Russia were "regathered" into the Russian Empire well more than a century after Left-Bank Ukraine (the lands east... Read More
The Belarus Horseshoe
•�August 3, 2020
•�1,500 Words •�234 Comments
Protest meeting in Minsk on July 30. The images of massive protests coming in from Belarus on the eve of their Presidential elections on August 9, in which Alexander Lukashenko is widely expected to rubber stamp himself another term, have provoked talk of a new color revolution/Maidan. The original social contract offered by Lukashenko since... Read More
Breaking Chimerica
•�May 23, 2020
•�200 Words •�153 Comments
In my review of Kroeber's book on The Chinese Economy, I identified why the CPC was treating the Hong Kongers with kid gloves (relatively speaking): Now it appears that China has taken the decision to reintegrate Hong Kong ahead of schedule; in the process, it will lose its position as a privileged entrepot within the... Read More
China Stakes Out the Post-Corona World
•�March 27, 2020
•�800 Words •�215 Comments
Broke: Globalism Broke: MAGA Woke: 14 Principles of Xi Jinping Thought *** Xi Jinping has just hurt the feelings of 6 billion world citizens: China is�
Iran's Missile Attacks May Have Been Mini-Sputnik Moment
•�January 17, 2020
•�1,100 Words •�53 Comments
The data points keep getting better and better. We now know that 10/11 missiles hit (up from the initial estimate of 6/11). The damage they did has also been upgraded, with a Danish soldier speaking of many helicopters destroyed (as opposed to the US claim of one damaged) and 11 US soldiers reported injured. More... Read More
Data Points
•�January 9, 2020
•�700 Words •�71 Comments
The Iran War has been called off for the time being, but the threat of a renewed crisis and future escalation remain. The Iranian missile strikes on two US bases in Iraq provide updated data points on how such a clash will go. 1. The most important adjustment we need to make is that Iranian... Read More
Iran Takes II: How the Iran War Will be Fought
•�January 7, 2020
•�1,900 Words •�280 Comments
PS. Events overtook my writing of this blog post. Looking forwards to a resolution of the Stealth Question and the Aircraft Carrier Question. How would an Iran War be fought? I already addressed this question on several occasions, most notably on The Road to World War III (see 2.c. The Persian Gulf), as well as... Read More
Iran Takes I
•�January 7, 2020
•�900 Words •�103 Comments
I am not an Iran expert, and will not pretend that I have magically become one in the past few days. Nor do I see much point in a detailed chronicle of the latest developments and Tweets - for that, there is, say, /r/SyrianCivilWar. Instead, I think it would be more productive to highlight a... Read More
Powerful Start to 2020s
•�January 2, 2020
•�452 Comments
Russia Trolls to Better Relations with Korea?
•�July 25, 2019
•�400 Words •�39 Comments
The joint air patrol between Russia and China - the first of its kind - was a further major development in the strategic partnership between the two countries. These have been getting closer for years, despite Western fantasies about an eventual break. However, the most interesting thing about this is Russia's violation of Korean/Japanese airspace... Read More
HAPPENING: Iran Responds to British Piracy
•�July 19, 2019
•�100 Words •�99 Comments
There are reports just coming in that Iran has seized 1 2 3 (?!) British-linked oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. This is in response to analogous British piracy off Gibraltar a few weeks ago. Anyhow I suppose we will soon see how special the "special relationship" between the US and the UK really is.... Read More
Iran Crisis Thread
•�June 20, 2019
•�300 Words •�122 Comments
Discuss the recent Iranian attack (or "attack") on the oil tankers, and the recent Iranian shootdown of the $200 million American drone (allegedly over international airspace - Iran denies it) here. *** I have discussed the consequences of a major US - Iran war in previous posts. I don't have much more to add at... Read More
Iran Escalation
•�June 14, 2019
•�300 Words •�298 Comments
As I have blogged before (see "2.c. The Persian Gulf" in this article), Iran's best chance to substantially shut down the Strait of Hormuz is to lay mines, then target US minesweeping vessels. They are far less well defended than its capital ships, and more fragile than the double-hulled, compartmentalized behemoths that constitute modern oil... Read More
World Tension Meter Is Inching Up
•�June 13, 2019
•�200 Words •�102 Comments
First, you have the obvious false flag in the Gulf of Oman, which Pompeo is already blaming on Iran. Even though one of the tankers in question was Japanese, with whose PM the Iranians were meeting on that very day. Plus there is the fact that the Japanese ship - which was coming from Saudi... Read More
On Chinese Reunification
•�June 4, 2019
•�400 Words •�191 Comments
Back in the mid-2000s, in a conversation with a Taiwanese exchange student, the topic somehow turned to international relations (proof that I am not making this up just because it's now a hot topic). I recall asking him what he thought would happen if China was to invade. His response? He thought that a good... Read More
Is Zelensky Putler's Puppet?
•�April 22, 2019
•�2,400 Words •�209 Comments
Prokudin-Gorsky. Malorossiya, c.1905-1915. In the 24 hours since the results of the second round of the Ukrainian Presidential elections became known, there has been a strange convergence of views on Ukraine's course under President-Elect Zelensky from opposite sides of the barricades. Many "svidomy" Ukrainians are in tears over their "hoodwinked" or "stupid" compatriots electing a... Read More
The Future of Russia-Ukraine Relations
•�March 22, 2019
•�1,100 Words •�272 Comments
The latest polls, jointly conducted by KIIS (Ukraine) and Levada (Russia), show that the collapse in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia may be turning a corner. Legend: Ukrainian attitudes towards Russia [blue]; Russian attitudes towards Ukraine [orange] For the first time since April 2014, more Ukrainians have a positive impressive of Russia than the converse. Attitudes... Read More
Tracking China's Naval Power
•�March 12, 2019
•�600 Words •�55 Comments
It is pretty evident that Chinese naval power is growing by leaps and bounds, with a lot of qualitative literature about it: Chinese military procurement ($70 billion) now half the rate of American ($155 billion). Adjust for purchasing power parity, and it should be virtually equal. If China is ahead deploying Railguns, electromag catapults and... Read More
My SCF Article on the End of the INF Treaty
•�February 5, 2019
•�300 Words •�106 Comments
I just made my debut on Strategic Culture foundation with an article on US suspension of the INF Treaty. Here is what it boils down to, IMO: However, it is with respect to the balance of power in the West Pacific that the restrictions imposed by the INF on the US – but not on... Read More
Connecting the Dots in the Huawei Kidnapping
•�January 26, 2019
•�400 Words •�31 Comments
Mitleser points to an interesting take on the Huawei Kidnapping: A great explanation of the Huawei Kidnapping, written by a comrade in the Deng Gang Central discord There may be a lot more than meets the eye in Canada’s shock arrest, at US behest, of Huawei’s CFO and heir apparent Meng Wanzhou (link below). Chinese... Read More
AoMI III: The Geopolitics of the Age of Malthusian Industrialism
•�January 25, 2019
•�1,400 Words •�98 Comments
This is the third in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Shadows of the Past in Venezuela
•�January 24, 2019
•�1,800 Words •�108 Comments
Caracas, Venezuela. One curious thing about Venezuela that few people seem to have remarked upon is that Chavez and Maduro are not really all that hardcore about their class war. The latter assumed the powers of Congress in 2017, but didn't send armed men to round up the querulous parliamentarians. They continued to yack and... Read More
Warship Derby Off Crimea
•�November 25, 2018
•�452 Comments
Latest reports that Kiev is planning to impose martial law. Anyhow. Poroshenko's only real hope of getting reelected is by having a short victorious war (as I suggested back in May). Though the "victorious" part will be really hard.
Is Bolsonaro an American Stooge?
•�October 29, 2018
•�1,200 Words •�118 Comments
Here are some basic things worth bearing in amidst the various powerful takes floating around. Campaign rhetoric is one thing - the reality of navigating international geopolitics is another. It is worth noting that while Americanophilia started off high at the start of many Brazilian right-wing administrations, it never consistently stayed high - not even... Read More
Open Thread 60
•�October 26, 2018
•�1,500 Words •�313 Comments
PSA from Patriarch Kirill II on the Ukrainian question in Moscow. Just your normal billboard ad. :) INSOMNIAC RESURRECTED Longtime Russia watchers may recall the Austere Insomniac blog, which used to offer excellent analysis on the Ukraine and was first to introduce the term "svidomy" into the English language. Unfortunately, it later closed down, but... Read More
Trump Withdraws from Cold War Relict Treaty
•�October 20, 2018
•�100 Words •�40 Comments
The INF Treaty was signed at a time when the US and the USSR were the world's dominant military powers and nobody else even came close. Today, it is China that is undoubtedly the world's second strongest conventional military Power. And while the US still retains dominance in the South China Sea according to reputable... Read More
Open Thread 55: Chilli Pepper Thread
•�September 14, 2018
•�1,800 Words •�261 Comments
I have more chilli peppers than I know what to do with (about 20 kg worth of it). Any ideas? My "Stupid People" post has been phenomenally successful, generating almost 1,000 comments and more visits than other post of mine at the UR since The Road to World War III this April. It also generated... Read More
Sinotriumph 101
•�September 12, 2018
•�1,200 Words •�924 Comments
Wei Geisheing (2013). Aerial Shanghai by Crane Operator 2. Let's take the standard assumption that national power consists of three main elements: Economic, military, and cultural ("soft"). Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom? China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at... Read More
Putin Needs to Sacrifice the Donbass to Survive. (Not Really).
•�September 1, 2018
•�1,300 Words •�197 Comments
Donbass is the heart of Russia. 1921 poster. Or so some people seem to believe and hope. So let's tally up these reasons: The Russian economy is getting increasingly desperate. Two percent GDP growth isn't anything to write home about, but neither is it particularly catastrophic. The budget is balanced, inflation is at record lows,... Read More
Gloomy Presentiments
•�April 10, 2018
•�600 Words •�371 Comments
I don't think I have a reputation for panicking. But I do think that we are now at probably the most dangerous point in world affairs since Russian and NATO troops faced off at Pristina Airport in 1999, if not since the Cold War. It is now clear that there will almost certainly be strikes... Read More
The Ukraine Has Not Yet Perished (And Won't Anytime Soon)
•�March 17, 2018
•�5,000 Words •�254 Comments
Since the Russian election is taking place on the anniversary of Crimea's incorporation into Russia - an intentional play to increase turnout - now is as good a time as any to reflect on the complete failure of the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. The Adepts of Putin's "Clever Plan" have predicted all twelve of the Ukraine's... Read More
The Partition of Syria
•�February 12, 2018
•�600 Words •�295 Comments
1. On February 7, the Americans destroyed a Syrian column moving in the direction of the Coneco oil fields with artillery, wiping up the rest with helicopters. There were at least 100 deaths in the SAA, versus one lightly injured SDF soldier. Although this could be viewed as a Syrian provocation, the fact remains that... Read More
Turkey Extending Olive Branch to Afrin
•�January 21, 2018
•�500 Words •�98 Comments
So it's clear from /r/SyrianCivilWar and LiveUAMap that Turkey and the TFSA has begun a large offensive to take Afrin, the Kurdish pocket in the northwest of the country. 1. There's no real question over their capacity to do it - the main question will be to what extent they will need Turkish ground support,... Read More
Syria in 2018
•�January 7, 2018
•�600 Words •�45 Comments
I have long warned that Islamic State's defeat will be a double-edged sword. Positive: Syrian government-held territory effectively doubles, though mostly in terms of useless, depopulated desert. Negative: Status quo returns to that of several years ago, i.e. back when Assad was "killing his own people" so far as the Western press, without the superlative... Read More
Blackpill Timeline
•�December 20, 2017
•�800 Words •�162 Comments
Might as well get this out of the way now so as not to sully the New Year cheer. Here's a pessimistic (for some) but plausible (I think) way things will develop in the next couple of years. 1. Trump cedes key positions to globalists and neocons. This has already happened; for all intents and... Read More
The Syria Strikes: Who Is 666D Chessing Whose Interuniversal Go Sequences?
•�April 13, 2017
•�5,400 Words •�152 Comments
So it's been a few days since the Syria Strikes, everyone and his dog have thrown in their two cents, and there has been a set of confusing and contradictory reactions from US officials and pretty much everyone else involved in this saga. The more the contradictions pile on, the less clear the picture becomes.... Read More
New Year: 2016 Prediction Calibration Results
•�December 31, 2016
•�1,400 Words •�9 Comments
In the spirit of #SkinInTheGame, Taleb's idea that pundits should at least stake their reputations on the strength of their knowledge, last year I made some predictions about what has come to be known as The Current Year. Like Scott Alexander, I am calibrating my predictions by comparing the percentage of predictions I got right... Read More
7 Reasons Why Russia Won't Invade Ukraine
•�August 20, 2016
•�1,800 Words •�107 Comments
Another August, another war scare. Intermittent reports of Russian military forces "staging" near Ukraine. Are the guns about to honor the title of a famous history book once again? Almost certainly not. Or at least, not by Russia's hand. (1) Though you could play a drinking time for every mention of "Gleiwitz" in conjunction with... Read More
Khaki Revolution in Turkey? Too Early to Celebrate
•�July 15, 2016
•�1,900 Words •�22 Comments
Three hours after this story began to break it's increasingly clear that we are seeing the biggest Happening of 2016 to date, far overshading the Nice terrorist attacks yesterday. As Lenin purportedly said, "Sometimes decades pass and nothing happens; and then sometimes weeks pass and decades happen." The initial regime response was to blame the... Read More
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Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.