');
The Unz Review •�An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
RSS
by ⇅�
Sources Filter? ❌
akarlin.com da-russophile sublime-oblivion
Nothing found
�
BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
/
Forecasts
�BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive
/
Forecasts

◄►Bookmark◄❌►▲ ▼Toggle AllToC▲▼Add to LibraryRemove from Library •�B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Why Obama Will Sooner Win
•�August 12, 2012
•�100 Words
Ten months ago I bet a symbolic $10 on a Republican win. According to elections models and the bookies, it's more likely than not that I've lost it. Not that I'm saddened by this development of course. (That said, if the economy slumps sharply in Q3, then a Romney win becomes entirely possible).
New Year Special: 2012 Predictions
•�January 3, 2012
•�4,000 Words •�215 Comments
It's been a great year! To recap, in rough chronological order, 2011 saw: The most popular post (with 562 comments and counting; granted, most of them consisting of Indians and Pakistanis flaming each other); Visualizing the Kremlin Clans (joint project with Kevin Rothrock of A Good Treaty); my National Comparisons between life in Russia, Britain,... Read More
Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Lose
•�October 7, 2011
•�800 Words •�46 Comments
And ironically, despite my blog's focus, to date my US predictions have been more accurate than my Russian ones. Obama to become President? Check. Republicans to win 2010 mid-terms? Check. The emergence of "a new party, a new politics", with "the feds [facing] challenges from the far-left and the far-right"? Check (Tea Party, Occupy Wall... Read More
Future Superpowers - the World to 2100
•�June 27, 2011
•�3,100 Words •�139 Comments
Most projections of future trends in national power fail to appreciate the importance of three crucial factors: (1) the declining EROEI of energy resources (including, but not limited to, "peak oil"); (2) the importance of human capital to economic growth, especially in developing countries' attempts to "catch up" to the advanced world; and (3) the... Read More
Decade Forecast, Part 1 - the Downsizing of Pax Americana
•�May 14, 2011
•�3,400 Words •�14 Comments
This is the first post in a series of three, in which I will analyze the major trends that will define the next ten years and their likely impacts on global regions. To put these forecasts into context, I must first describe the narrative through which I view the history of the post-WW2 era (the... Read More
New Year Special, Part 2: 2011 Predictions
•�January 3, 2011
•�2,200 Words •�9 Comments
Carrying on from yesterday's 2010 in Review, I'll now lay out my predictions for this year and see how well last year's stacked up to reality. (1) Last year, I wrote: "World economy continues an anemic recovery, though there are significant risks to the downside." Today I'd repeat this, but add that the risks have... Read More
New Year Special, Part 1: 2010 in Review
•�January 3, 2011
•�2,000 Words •�25 Comments
Happy new year to all Sublime Oblivion readers! This blog wouldn't be what it is without you. In fact, I'd have probably abandoned it after a month or two after a couple of posts as I did with my first blog in 2006. So please keep on reading and commenting. BTW, the image above is... Read More
My Interview on Middle East Geopolitics, Afghanistan and Iran & the Bomb with Marat Kunaev
•�August 22, 2010
•�1,700 Words •�38 Comments
I was recently interviewed on Middle East geopolitics and the Iran Question by Marat Kunaev, a blogger and translator at InoForum. I would like to thank him for the opportunity to express my views on the topic and providing a possible gateway into the geopolitical commentary on Runet. I'm reprinting the interview from here, with... Read More
Another View of the US Economy: Observations on Exergy, GDP & Median Incomes
•�August 21, 2010
•�2,500 Words •�17 Comments
The standard view of the American economy is one of exponential growth: even if interrupted by a recession once a decade and a Depression once every two generations (the 1890's, the 1930's, the 2010's?), the engines of industry would always come back roaring again. Output per American could always be expected to increase as it... Read More
Prophets of the Great War: Friedrich Engels, Ivan Bloch, and Pyotr Durnovo
•�May 5, 2010
•�3,300 Words •�7 Comments
Though there are plenty of caveats and exceptions, it is safe to generalize that predictions of what the "next war" was going to be like before 1914 were completely inaccurate. The Great War would not be the quick, clean affair typical of the wars of German unification in the 1860's-70's or the sensationalist literature of... Read More
The Endgame Begins
•�February 13, 2010
•�4,400 Words •�22 Comments
A year ago I predicted that there will be a "decoupling from the unwinding", as "emerging markets" by and large ride out the temporary shocks of declining Western demand for their exports (China) and the interruption of Western credit intermediation (Russia) before resuming growth. This is one aspect of the trends leading to the imminent... Read More
New Year Special: Year in Review and 2010 Predictions
•�January 4, 2010
•�2,900 Words •�6 Comments
I would like to wish all Sublime Oblivion readers a very happy and successful New Year. One of my major motivations for writing is getting comments and feedback, so please continue - the more you inflate my ego, the more time I will feel compelled to spend on the blog. ;) All in all, 2009... Read More
Review of "Global Catastrophes and Trends" by Vaclav Smil
•�September 28, 2009
•�4,300 Words •�3 Comments
Smil, Vaclav – Global Catastrophes and Trends (2008) Category: futurism, climate change, geopolitics, catastrophes; Rating: 5/5 Summary: Google Books Vaclav Smil, an energy theorist and language connoisseur, brings his talents to bear on this idiosyncratic, incisive and balanced book on the global future. From the outset, he outlines his skepticism in universal theories of history... Read More
Review of "The Next 100 Years" by George Friedman
•�February 23, 2009
•�5,900 Words •�7 Comments
The Next 100 Years by George Friedman, published in 2010. Rating: 3/5 George Friedman at Stratfor is one of my favorite analysts on world geopolitics. This is because he tries to look at the world as it is, without the pointless moralizing, neoliberal ideologizing and end-of-history triumphalism that clouds too much American geopolitical thinking. Hence... Read More
New Year Special: Year in Review and 2009 Predictions
•�January 2, 2009
•�1,700 Words •�2 Comments
Again, a very happy and successful New Year to Sublime Oblivion readers. It has certainly been a successful year for this blog, founded as Da Russophile on Jan 9th 2008. The original site at blogger has nearly 16,000 visitors, while Sublime Oblivion has been graced by nearly 2000 from the date of its inception on... Read More
Why Obama Will Almost Certainly Win
•�July 17, 2008
•�500 Words
Read these two posts by Krugman at Conscience of a Liberal, here and here. 1. A looming recession, after seven years of stagnation in the US median wage, means that the likelihood of positive income growth this year is very small. Even assuming it's 0% would mean that the incumbent party's nominee, McCain, can be... Read More
"Forecasts" Items Across Entire Archive
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.