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Flash Commentary No, 1460b June 20th, 2021

• Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary • There Is No V-Shaped Recovery • Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged Economy on Par With the Great Depression • Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit • Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation • 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W • Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present • FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead • Despite Talk of Tightening in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is Easing Anew in Its Latest Actions More ...

Flash Commentary No. 1460a May 31st, 2021

• Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard • New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse • Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak • New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak • Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels • April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) • Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook • Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking • Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies • Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary More ...

Flash Commentary No. 1460a May 31st, 2021

Benchmark Commentary No. 1459 April 21st, 2021

• Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses • Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 • Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary • Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change • The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 • This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2 • ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply • Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery • Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy • That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation • Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems • Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary More ...

April 21st, 2021

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Flash Commentary No. 1458 February 24th, 2021

• January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse • Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago • While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index® Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago • Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story • First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction • January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High • U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates • Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil More ...

Flash Commentary No. 1457 February 16th, 2021

• Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5% • In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic • Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing • January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions • Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk • Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation • Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes • Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions More ...

Flash Commentary No. 1456 February 1st, 2021

• Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound • Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset • Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery • First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction • Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Reporting • Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders • Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 • Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues • Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning More ...

Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1455 January 28th, 2021

• Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 • Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%) • An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% • December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction • December 2020 Cass Freight Index® Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity • Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" • Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year • Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse • Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress • Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil More ...

Economic Commentary No. 1454 December 29th, 2020

• Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead • Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery • On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration • November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months • November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices • Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 • Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation • Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 • Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 • Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump • Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation More ...

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ShadowStats Continues to Publish – Notice to Subscribers and Interested Readers – August 28, 2023

SHADOWSTATS CONTINUES TO PUBLISH ALL IT.S COMMENTARIES, FORECASTS, DATA AND GRAPHS, BY E-MAI LINK TO SUBSCRIBERS. If you are a ShadowStats Subscriber, but not receiving those e-mails, please contact me directly at [email protected] or call (707) 763-5786, and I shall get it straightened out immediately. Separately, any Subscriber who needs any hard data or related graphs, please contact me directly, as above, and your needs will be fulfilled.

As background to the recent changes and disruptions at ShadowStats.com, the ShadowStats website previously was hosted on the Web by a company we had dealt with for many years, but which went out of business in mid-August, with little warning. Ours is an older Site and is being updated and adapted to its new Web host, along with some other software. Getting the circumstances adjusted, specifically putting a new e-mail delivery system in place for subscribers, took longer than expected, but the new system is in place – going on its third week. Commentaries, including the usual comment and graphs, are transmitted roughly once per week, depending on the flow of new economic and financial data releases. The ShadowStats Alternate Data files also are provided, as before, in an Excel file, but also now by link.

SHADOWSTATS WELCOMES NEW SUBSCRIBERS AND EXISTING SUBSCRIBERS. For those looking to subscribe or to renew an existing Subscription, a one-year subscription continues at $175.00, with six months at $89.00, To subscribe or renew, contact [email protected] or call (707) 763-5786 . You also may mail a check for $175.00, or for $89.00, payable to “Walter J. Williams,” at P.O. Box 2528. Petaluma, CA 95953. Be sure to include your full name, e-mail address, postal mailing address and phone number, and to indicate either a one-year or six-month subscription on the check

MOST RECENT OUTLOOK: Amidst continuing deterioration in U.S. economic activity and increasing risk of resurgent inflation, the “ShadowStats New Weekly Commentary” was launched and linked to Subscribers by e-mail on August 14th (covering the general economy, labor conditions and the July 2023 CPI), followed by one on August 24th (covering July 2023 Money Supply and general economy) . The next edition is planned for Friday, September 1st, covering August 2023 Employment and Unemployment, and the third estimate of Second-Quarter 2023 GDP. There will be three to five Commentaries per month, depending on the Economic and FOMC Calendar.

The outlook has changed little. ShadowStats numbers show that the economy remains in a deepening downturn, intensified by ongoing Federal Reserve Rate Hikes. Headline inflation faces a near-term rebound, thanks to the continuing and broadly based excessive growth in the Money Supply and Systemic Liquidity, as triggered by the Fed. Separately, with the Debt Ceiling now eliminated by Congress and the Executive Branch, unfettered Federal Deficit Spending increasingly is adding fuel to the unfolding Inflation. The systemic Inflation is not driven by the Fed’s proclaimed overheating economy. Such an economy simply does not exist, at present.

My apologies for the Site disruptions, and thank you for your patience and forbearance. Best regards, John -- [Walter J. "John" Williams, [email protected], (707) 763-5786.]

Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

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Some Biographical & Additional Background Information

Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me “John.” For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.

That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies.

Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.

Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here).

An old friend—the late-Doug Gillespie—asked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. — John Williams