Need for course correction
The EU should see China as a trustworthy partner for cooperation to solidify a shared common future and peaceful coexistence
The many-fold paradoxes of transatlantic relationships are affecting the European Union's multidimensional partnership with China. In particular, the close synergy and strategic affairs between the EU and the United States — built on a shared set of foreign policy areas, including NATO, security, energy and digital transitions cooperation — determine Brussels' tactical approaches to a new reality on China. However, this reality is changing fast, and it is not in the favor of European people.
Brussels' choice to set tariffs as high as 45 percent on Chinese electric vehicles is unlikely to prevent a structural cycle of turmoil: the crisis in Ukraine and its consequent energy shock, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the EU recession and the substantial acceleration of economic inequality and social disparities. Europe's economy is a cause for concern. The 27 member states in the EU face an uncertain future, due to problems such as demographic aging, defense expenditure, increased inflation rate in the euro area, excessive cost of living and rising prices.
Although its GDP is estimated to reach $19.35 trillion (nominal) in 2024, the European Commission predicts that the EU's economy will grow by 1.4 percent in 2025. This is a substantial slowdown compared to previous years. In the meantime, the EU-US gap in the level of GDP at 2015 prices has gradually widened from slightly more than 15 percent in 2002 to 30 percent in 2023, as stated in the Future of European Competitiveness report unveiled by the European Commission.
Furthermore, Europe's chief economies are on a shaky path. The three biggest economies — Germany, France and Italy — have been drawn into recession. Italy's GDP growth over the last decade was sluggish, reflecting structural economic weaknesses and a sclerotic bureaucracy. France, the second-largest economy in the EU, is experiencing a growing labor shortage in both high-skilled and low-skilled jobs, while support for far-right groups across France — and Europe — is surging. It is not accidental that French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Europe is about to collapse economically. Meanwhile, according to the University of Munich, the German economy is trapped in an industrial crisis, with structural factors having a negative impact as Berlin's economic decline expands with a projected reduction in 2024, marking its second consecutive year of weakening. Besides, both German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Macron are politically vulnerable. In Berlin, uncertainty looms for Germany after Scholz's coalition collapsed. The French president lost his own majority in the National Assembly after the summer 2024 elections, and, therefore, he turns into a less powerful political position for the next three years.
Therefore, the EU's future is likely to be less idyllic. At present, the International Monetary Fund has estimated that a European version of the US' Inflation Reduction Act would reduce the EU's GDP by 0.6 percent. The EU's capitalist economy has already led to an escalated economic and social crisis, which in turn poses great risk and insecurity at the global level. In recent years, the fiscal austerity reflects the capitalist orthodoxy of the EU and, accordingly, proves that it is unable to tackle crucial socioeconomic junctures.
In any case, the failings and limitations of the EU are not temporary; they are structural. Overall, Europe's governing and institutional apparatus is weakly equipped to tackle systemic issues.
In conjunction with the dependency status on the US and NATO, Brussels will face daunting socioeconomic opposites. Furthermore, the US corporate lobbying is increasingly towing the Brussels' institutional apparatus toward additional requirements of dependency on the US' geopolitical goals. Within this framework, the EU consenting to impose tariffs on China is part of the US and NATO's geopolitical goals to methodically break and block Sino-EU strategic guidelines and interaction. Such goals call into question the EU's capability as a relevant player at the international level. In view of this, analysts in Europe believe that the EU's imposition of higher and complex tariffs resolve no problem, since such policies will arouse distrust and, thus, escalate tensions.
Simultaneously, commentators reiterate the issue that the European policymakers' "rival" rather than "partner" approach with their Chinese counterparts does not contribute to a closer EU-China symbiotic cooperation in key areas. Besides, the hard-line approach is a kind of asymmetrical bipolarity issue fed by Brussels' rising internal cycle of instability, which generates and/or intensifies types of structural irritants in the Sino-European institutional architecture.
However, China and Europe are more partners than rivals. They have long-standing and complex political and economic relations. It is for this reason that Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out during his meeting with EU leaders at the 24th China-EU Summit that the two sides need to develop the right perception of each other, promote mutual understanding and trust, honor commitments, do the right thing and be wholehearted in developing China-EU relations. Nonetheless, the Sino-European partnership is wider than the bilateral relationship since this partnership has a secondary effect of influencing the EU's relationship with other regional entities such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It should also be stated that China and ASEAN are home to over 1.4 billion and 600 million people respectively. The combined population accounts for one-fourth of the global total. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is estimated to witness the fastest Compound Annual Growth Rate between 2024 and 2034. Considering a multipolar yet fragile world, a durable multidimensional China-EU equilibrium is needed to promote mutual understanding and trust.
In the main, the EU should perceive China as a trustworthy partner for cooperation. Accordingly, such a trusty partnership would in turn solidify the principle of a shared common future for humanity, and thus it may also influence the international political environment toward a peaceful coexistence.
The author is a former rector of the European University Cyprus, an ordinary member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts and director of the CASS-EUC Center of China Studies. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
Contact the editor at [email protected].
