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Amazon | Shell Global Scenarios to 2025: The Future Business Environmenttrends, Trade-offs And Choices | van der Veer, Jeroen | Economics

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Shell Global Scenarios to 2025: The Future Business Environmenttrends, Trade-offs And Choices リング製本 – 2005/6/30

英語版 Jeroen van der Veer (編集)

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本の長さ

214ページ
言語

英語
出版社

Peterson Inst for Intl Economics
発売日

2005/6/30
寸法

25.4 x 2.54 x 23.5 cm
ISBN-10

0881323837
ISBN-13

978-0881323832
すべての詳細を表示

登録情報

出版社 ‏ : ‎ Peterson Inst for Intl Economics (2005/6/30)
発売日 ‏ : ‎ 2005/6/30
言語 ‏ : ‎ 英語
リング製本 ‏ : ‎ 214ページ
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0881323837
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0881323832
寸法 ‏ : ‎ 25.4 x 2.54 x 23.5 cm

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Chad M
Intriguing and wide ranging book about energy and business scenarios
2019年7月17日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Written in 2005, this book is informative and interesting, but the authors were unable to predict several new trends. First, the fracking boom, and second, the rise of China's industrial power. Trend lines in oil use from 1965 to 2003 were smooth and predictable and would not indicate the surge in China's oil consumption (p. 192).

This book is much more than a report about oil, gas, coal, and other energy resources. Cultural and social trends also figure prominently. From the view in 2005 the authors wrote about three main scenarios: "Low Trust Globalization", "Open Doors", and "Flags" (p. 49, 73, 95, and related pages). Describing three scenarios and variants within each scenario is paradigmatic in the future studies field (see "Global Trends 2030" by the US National Intelligence Council).

A common theme in this book is that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) and the oil majors seek out business opportunities but also see that energy use is key to raising living standards. Also, RDS supports civil society. The authors point out that a low trust world is more expensive for business and slows development, but also can be a rational response for people and companies in a world with more failed states (see also, "Trust" by Francis Fukuyama).

This book is incredibly wide-ranging in its topics, themes, charts, and scenarios. Considering the events and trends which have transpired since 2005, and which continue, this books continues to be worth study.

One further question is whether China's foreign policy is increasing the level of trust in multinational corporations or not. Recent news reports indicate that China's companies sometimes make loans that African and South Asian nations are unlikely to repay, resulting in defaults and new ownership of economic sectors by China.

In addition, the development of trust depends on transparency, which in turn relies on journalism, science reports, and public education. As corporations lobby for lower taxes they sometimes undermine the kind of public education, science, journalism, and transparency upon which trust is built, and therefore, inadvertently, create various scenarios where it is more expensive for companies with integrity to do business in the world.

Interestingly, transparency with regard to oil reserves and fracking is also important for the energy industry. Whether one considers conventional oil reserves, fracking, renewables, or nuclear, clarity with regard to reserves, proven reserves, and potential reserves is a perennial topic (see "Energy at the Crossroads" and "Power Density" by Prof. Vaclav Smil; and Peak Oil estimates in this Shell Report, p. 193).

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Soren Ingomar Petersen
Five Stars
2014年12月30日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
On time and as new1

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