- David M. Weinberg
The draft bill currently before Knesset is an outrage and a fiction at the same time.
Religious Zionists demand: Give our families a 50% reduction in army service too!
Published in The Jerusalem Post, January 24, 2025. Print-friendly copy
Cartoon: Shay Charka, Makor Rishon: “Don’t worry guys, my Torah learning is dedicated to this soldier’s recovery and to your success in battle.”Defense Minister Israel Katz says that if his new haredi (ultra-Orthodox) IDF draft bill were adopted, the number of haredim serving in the IDF per year would jump to 4,800 in 2025, 5,700 in 2026, and steadily reach 50% eligibility by 2032, the seventh year of the bill’s implementation.
This, out of a pool of more than 60,000 young haredi men who currently exempt themselves from military or national service.
Deputy Attorney-General Gil Limon immediately retorted that the scope of Katz’s proposed draft does not meet constitutional standards of equality, as insisted upon by the Israeli Supreme Court (and as expected by most Israelis).
More relevant and poignant was the response delivered at a Wednesday meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee by Noa Mevorach of the Religious Zionist “Shutafot LaSheirut” movement (Partners in Service).
In a passionate address, Mevorach held up her husband’s conscription notice for reserve duty, what would be his fifth tour of reserve duty in the IDF since the Simchat Torah (October 7, 2023) invasion of Israel and the massacres led by Hamas. This next tour of duty would take him away from home and from his four kids for the upcoming holidays of Purim and Pesach, just as he was absent from home for Rosh Hashana and Succot.
“The blood of great (Torah) scholars from my community who went to battle for Israel over the past year, the husbands of my friends who were killed in battle and whose kids are orphans – cries out from the ground,” exclaimed Mrs. Mevorach.
“I hear the discussion here in this committee where it is said over and over that haredi men cannot be drafted except by consensus, that they cannot be drafted against their will, that force won’t work. And that the great goal of the proposed new draft legislation is to softly and slowly reach a 50% draft of haredi men.”
“So take another look at my husband’s fifth draft notice! I ask every member of Knesset to consider this: Why am I not eligible for a 50% discount too, for a 50% reduction in the army burden placed on my husband and on the shoulders of my family? Give me a 50% reduction! I’ll take either the holidays of Tishrei (Rosh Hashana, Yom Kippur, and Succot) or the holidays of Nissan (Pesach) in this cutback, so that my husband can be home for 50% of the holidays and we won’t have to sit at the holiday table alone or go to my parents.”
“Why am I not eligible for 50% savings? Who decided and with what authority was it decided that one particular population in the State of Israel, the haredi public, is entitled to a 50% discount? I also want the option to choose such a bargain!”
Of course, Noa Mevorach’s demand for relief and true sharing of the military burden is justified on religious, ideological, social, legal, and political grounds. And Defense Minister Katz’s draft/non-draft legislation is a weak, sad sop to the power that haredi factions hold in Israeli politics.
I want to add my voice to Noa Mevorach’s cry. Two of my sons – serious religious men, Torah scholars even, with young families – just received their fourth call-up notices, covering another ten weeks of reserve duty on the Gaza and Judea and Samaria fronts, for the Purim-Pesach holiday period. I too demand a 50% discount for them.
The enforcement mechanisms in the proposed bill – supposed financial sanctions against any yeshiva that does not meet its quota and against men who are issued draft orders but do not show up – are a joke too.
Moreover, the extent of haredi draft that Katz aims for does not meet the IDF’s immediate needs, which is about 10,000 new soldiers, including 6,000 to 7,000 combat soldiers.
Alas, I see no solution for this painful issue, no matter what draft/draft exemption law is passed in this Knesset or the next; no matter what sanctions are imposed on haredi families and institutions.
Haredi leaders are mostly 90+ year old scholars locked into an ideological framework that mistakenly posits spiritual primacy of their Torah study above all else. They are incapable of adjusting to the realities and necessities of Jewish statehood, and unwilling to risk the vast changes in haredi society that would surely follow any significant draft of haredim, even in frameworks that are super-finely tuned to haredi sensibilities.
It would be nice to believe that the trauma and suffering of the past 15 months in the general Israeli public and in the “Torani” (ardent Religious Zionist) community as represented by Mrs. Mevorah, would shock the haredi community out of its crushingly insular shell and nudge it forward towards national service – but nada. It has not happened to any significant degree nor will it.
This is an historic grand tragedy that has the potential to crash the modern State of Israel, no less, in the Heavens and on earth.
I don’t dismiss the slew of impressive efforts to integrate older haredi men and women in soft military and civilian-security frameworks such as the military industries and regional rapid-response Homefront defense squads – such as those being bravely advanced by Eli Paley of the Haredi Institute for Public Affairs. In fact, I salute him.
Nor should one dismiss the gargantuan effort now being made by the IDF, for the first time, to provide a truly haredi-friendly military environment for haredi inductees.
The IDF just drafted a first cohort into its new “Hasmonean” haredi brigade, complete with its own sequestered training base where haredi religious standards on everything from kashrut and tefilot to gender separation and ideological indoctrination are to be scrupulously observed. This impressive effort is headed-up by a smart and sensitive military commander, Col. Avinoam Emunah. (He was chased and hounded by haredi hooligans in Bnei Brak several weeks ago.)
Alas, these fine initiatives only nibble at the edges of the military, societal, and ideological need, which is significant draft to the fighting army of 18 to 26 years old haredi men.
And thus, the arrangements now proposed by the defense minister are both an outrage and a fiction.
Outrage, because they perpetuate mass draft desertion by the haredi community. They fail to nudge haredi leaders towards reluctant recognition of the post-October 7 changed situation and towards even grudging validation of military/national service for mainstream (not just marginal) haredim, yeshiva boys and kollel men.
Fiction, because the target numbers are a boondoggle. Like the previous frameworks for haredi draft over the past decades (the Tal, Plesner, Shaked, and other plans), the numbers will never be met, or they will be massaged to included lots of inductees who are not really haredi at their core, and thus “satisfy” the target goals.
I want to add my voice to Noa Mevorach’s cry. Two of my sons – serious religious men, Torah scholars even, with young families – just received their fourth call-up notices, covering another ten weeks of reserve duty on the Gaza and Judea and Samaria fronts, for the Purim-Pesach holiday period. I too demand a 50% discount for them.
- David M. Weinberg
Israel will have to play along with President Trump’s priorities such as the hostage deal and a Saudi deal. If Israel does so, it will be well placed to expect a return from Trump down the line on other issues – ranging from Israeli assertion of sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria, to pushback against nasty international organizations that are at Israel’s throat, to US supply to Israel of heavy ordnance weaponry necessary for striking Iran, and more.
Published in The Jerusalem Post, January 17, 2025; and Israel Hayom, January 21, 2025. Print-friendly copy
Cartoon: Denys AlmaralWith Donald J. Trump moving in three days’ time back into the White, Israel must carefully calibrate its relationship with the new-old president and his team. Israel has to evaluate what expectations and demands of Trump are realistic, and what price Israel will likely have to pay to meet his priorities.
This is especially true, in light of the hostage-for-terrorist release deal that Trump forced down the throat of Israel (and Hamas) this week. What does this tell us about the incoming president’s proclivities and modus operandi?
The hostage deal and imposed ceasefire cannot come as a surprise. For months now, Trump has made it clear that by his inauguration on January 20 he expects quiet on the Gaza front and other Mideast battle lines so that he can focus without interference on his priorities – which are immigration, the economy, and China. And reaching a grand Mideast strategic accord involving Saudi Arabia.
Everything else, Trump has intimated, can wait. This includes finishing-off Hamas and real military confrontation with Iran. This is what Trump’s aides call “sequencing,” an ordered set of priorities where not everything can be tackled all at once and early on. In Hebrew, the relevant idiom is parah parah, meaning that you milk (or slaughter) one cow at a time.
It is not only a question of sequencing. It also is “transactional,” meaning that Trump runs his foreign policy with a business mindset: give and take.
Thus “Transactional Trump” expects Israel to play along with his priorities, and this is especially true regarding a Saudi deal.
Trump intends to cut a tripartite American-Saudi-Israeli accord this year. For a range of reasons, this is one of Trump’s top priorities. It is well within reach, and it mostly jibes with Israel’s preferences.
But Israel will have to swallow some bitter pills to facilitate this, like acquiescence to the US sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh and acceptance of a US-backed Saudi civilian nuclear program. Netanyahu also may have to mutter something about a “pathway” to Palestinian independence in the distant future – even though neither he nor the Saudis nor most members of Trump’s team believe this is feasible or sensible.
Again, in the context of Trump’s transactional approach to politics and foreign policy, Israel will have to play its part in facilitating the Saudi deal.
If Israel does so, it will be well placed to expect a return from Trump down the line on other issues – ranging from Israeli assertion of sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria, to pushback against nasty international organizations that are at Israel’s throat, to US supply to Israel of heavy ordnance weaponry necessary for striking Iran, and more.
“Transactional Trump” is a challenge but also an opportunity. Israel has much to offer the US, and over time can realistically expect concrete returns.
And remember, even if Trump is not going to green light in the near term renewed and decisive warfare against Hamas, he and his team are not going to delegitimize Israel’s continuing wars against Palestinian terrorism in Gaza or Judea and Samaria (and against Hezbollah and jihadist terror from Lebanon and Syria) – the way that the Biden-Blinken-Harris team did.
We also are not going to hear Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Walz, and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee contribute to “Palestinianization” of regional politics by fetishizing an “immediate” need for Palestinian statehood – especially after the Simchat Torah (October 7, 2023) invasion and massacres.
They are not going to qualify Israel’s “right” to defend itself by using the insidious Kamala Harris qualifiers “but” and “only.” “But too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, children, mothers…” said Kamala, and Israel can fight “only if this leads rapidly towards a two-state solution where the Palestinians have security, self-determination, and the dignity they so rightly deserve.”
Similarly, the Trump team is not going to justify and excuse the radical anti-American, anti-Israeli, and antisemitic rioters on American campuses by allowing that “they have a point” (– another shoddy Harris quip). And the Trump team along with the Republican-dominated Congress is not going to hide behind extreme liberal loyalties to the farce known as “international law,” whose holy institutions like the UNCHR, ICC, and ICJ have taken to assaulting Israel with false apartheid allegations and war crime arrest warrants.
And the Trump team is not going to fuel the nasty campaign to delegitimize Israel’s very presence in Judea and Samaria by conjuring-up and sanctioning so-called “violent settlers” and other “malign” Israeli civil society actors on the right-wing of the political map.
Pushback against all this by the Trump team is crucially important in rebuilding Israel’s legitimacy and standing on the global stage.
FORCING IRAN off its nuclear weapon and regional hegemonic drives through concrete military action is Israel’s top policy priority, and for this it needs Trump administration support and cooperation.
(Perhaps Israeli acquiescence in the Gaza ceasefire that Trump insisted upon will help in this regard. Perhaps. That would make the ceasefire deal with all its problematic aspects especially IDF withdrawals and the release of Palestinian terrorist from Israeli jails – worthwhile.)
But Trump is not there yet. Until President Trump is convinced – in my assessment, this will take some time – that no degree of “maximum” economic sanctions and no amount of his personal swagger and business acumen will do the trick in defanging Iran, he will not be ready to militarily confront Iran.
But this doesn’t mean that time must be wasted. There is a broad range of important immediate initiatives on the table, below the level of direct military assault on Iran, for revitalizing the US-Israel partnership and for hemming-in Iran.
My colleague Asher Fredman of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy has laid out a road map for taking the US-Israel alliance to new heights, in a 14-page focused policy paper. (Fredman also serves as Director for Israel at the Abraham Accords Peace Institute.)
The paper details four areas for enhanced US-Israel strategic cooperation in the immediate term: defense, intelligence, and technological cooperation; countering the shared threats from Iran and its proxies; expanding regional cooperation and the Abraham Accords; and countering and defunding anti-American, anti-Israeli and pro-terror activity in international organizations.
The brilliance of the paper is its detail. For example, Fredman has specific proposals for expanding joint R&D on cutting-edge military technologies like high-energy laser systems, space and satellite technologies, unmanned air, ground, surface and undersea vehicles, hypersonic weapons, military AI, and offensive and defensive cyber capabilities; and cooperation in advancing precision medicine, digital health, drug development and bio-convergence. He also suggests adding Israel to NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative (PII) and granting Israel “Enhanced Opportunity Partner” status.
Regarding Iran, there are concrete proposals for enacting and aggressively enforcing sanctions on the “ghost fleet” transporting Iranian oil to Asia, and on any entity involved in the manufacture, sale, or transfer of Iranian military equipment or technology to other countries. Also, imposition of sanctions on any financial institution that uses Iran’s System for Electronic Payment Messaging (SEPAM) to verify or conduct a transition. And of course, the Houthis should be listed back onto the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
As for regional accords, even before any deal is reached with Saudi Arabia, there is much to do – like advancing the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) Corridor to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and expanding the I2U2 framework encompassing India, Israel, the UAE, and USA, to involve projects in space, energy, water, agriculture, transportation, and health business, academic, and civil society platforms.
Pushing back against terrorism in international institutions should lead to defunding of the UNHRC, OCHA, UNESCO, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Palestinian Territories, CEIRPP, UNISPAL, the UN Division of Palestinian Rights and the anti-Israel departments of the UN departments of Political and Peace-Building Affairs, Global Communications, and Public Information. American victims of terror should be allowed to sue international organizations that provide resources to US-designated terrorist groups and that would otherwise be immune pursuant to the International Organization Immunity Act.
In short, “Transactional Trump” is a challenge but also an opportunity. Israel has much to offer the US, and over time can realistically expect concrete returns.
- David M. Weinberg
Dealing Palestinian terrorists for Israeli hostages might be the most necessary and moral thing in the world to do, but it also may be the most disastrous thing Israel can do. The cost will pay out over a prolonged period, and it will be steep.
The released terrorists assuredly will strike again, with God-only-knows how many Israeli casualties in the future. Their release certainly will incentivize future kidnappings, pour gasoline onto the terrorist fires already raging in Judea and Samaria, and catapult Hamas towards its intended takeover of Judea and Samaria too.
We know this to be a fact because this has been the case with every previous terrorist release, as detailed in my article here.
And each time, in advance of every deal, the Israeli “security establishment” arrogantly and falsely has assured Israeli politicians and the public that it “would know how to manage the situation,” i.e., how to track the terrorists and crush any nascent return to terrorist activity without too much harm done.
But this has never proven to be true. Every deal involving the release of terrorists has led to much bloodshed, planned and carried-out by these released terrorists.
Published by the Jewish News Service (JNS), January 14, 2025. Print-friendly copy
Many Israelis will say that the hostage release deal under discussion is sad but necessary; that it is the government’s moral obligation to free as many hostages as possible, as soon as possible, despite the high price; that the suffering of our hostages and their families is intolerable on the personal and national levels.
Many will say that giving freed hostages one big national hug will be the greatest triumph of all, something so necessary for Israel’s collective spirit and its resilience over the long term.
Many Israelis might feel this to be so even if the deal entails near-total withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. In other words, even if Hamas retains power and survives to fight another day.
However one finesses the diplomatic and defense dilemmas here, there is one additional grand security calculus that seems absent from public discourse. This is the piercingly high price of releasing many Palestinian terrorists from Israeli jails which will be part of any deal.
The released terrorists assuredly will strike again, with God-only-knows how many Israeli casualties in the future. Their release certainly will incentivize future kidnappings, pour gasoline onto the terrorist fires already raging in Judea and Samaria, and catapult Hamas towards its intended takeover of Judea and Samaria too.
We know this to be a fact because this has been the case with every previous terrorist release. Israel repeatedly has erred by letting terrorists loose to murder more Israelis.
And each time, in advance of every deal, the Israeli “security establishment” arrogantly and falsely has assured Israeli politicians and the public that it “would know how to manage the situation,” i.e., how to track the terrorists and crush any nascent return to terrorist activity without too much harm done.
But this has never proven to be true. Every deal involving the release of terrorists has led to much bloodshed, planned and carried-out by these released terrorists.
There are no exact statistics on this (because unsurprisingly the security establishment refuses to release such statistics), but estimates range from 10 to 50 percent of released terrorists who swiftly return to hard-core terrorist activity, with devastating effect.
The 1,150 Palestinian prisoners released by Israel in the 1985 Jibril deal (in exchange for three Israeli soldiers) proceeded to fuel the First Intifada. According to the Ministry of Defense, about ten percent of the released Palestinian terrorists returned to active terrorist duty.
Then came the Oslo Accords when Israel mistakenly allowed at least 60,000 (!) Palestinians from “abroad” into the territories including 7,000 card-carrying PLO terrorists. Between 1993 and 1999, Israel released many additional Palestinian terrorists as “gestures” to the PLO, which fueled the Second Intifada. These shocking figures were revealed in an IDSF report from last year.
In 2004, Israel released more than 400 Palestinian prisoners and some 30 Lebanese prisoners including leaders of Hezbollah for one civilian captive, Elhanan Tannenbaum, and the bodies of three IDF soldiers. The Second Lebanon War against Hezbollah followed not long after.
The 2011 deal for Gilad Shalit was the worst: More than 1,000 terrorists including Yahya Sinwar were released in exchange for Shalit. In fact, almost the entire Hamas command structure that planned the Simchat Torah (October 7) assault on Israeli towns and cities, which killed over 1,200 Israelis on one day, was made up of terrorists released in the Shalit deal.
Other Palestinian terrorists released in the Shalit deal proceeded to carry out the most notorious terrorist murders of the past 13 years: Baruch Mizrachi by Ziad Awad, Dr. David Applebaum and his daughter Navah (on the eve of her wedding) by Ramez Sali Abu Salim, Malachi Rosenfeld by Ahmas Najjar, Rabbi Miki Mark (a father of ten kids) by Mohamed Fakih, and more.
Mahmoud Qawasameh, another terrorist released in the Shalit deal, planned the kidnapping and murder of the three teenagers Naftali Fraenkel, Eyal Yifrach, and Gilad Shaer in Gush Etzion in 2014.
After the kidnapping and murder of the three boys, the IDF acted to re-arrest many of the terrorists freed in the Shalit deal. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, who was chief prosecutor of the IDF in the territories, says that half of the 130 “heavy” terrorists released into Judea and Samaria in the Shalit deal had returned to terrorist activity, and were re-arrested.
Many others, he says, also reactivated their terrorist ties in the territories and engaged in terrorist support activities outside of Israel – but Israeli authorities could not always get to them for operational or legal reasons. Another IDSF report from one year ago details this.
There is some debate among experts as to whether Israel has a better chance of interdicting terrorist activity of released terrorists in the territories or abroad, meaning whether it is preferable to keep terrorists under surveillance in Gaza and Judea and Samaria (where they can be eliminated, if necessary), or to “exile” terrorists to Turkey, Lebanon, and Syria (where targeting them is politically and operationally more difficult).
Lt. Col. (res.) Baruch Yedid, former adviser on Arab affairs to the IDF’s Central Command, and Moshe (“Mofaz”) Fuzaylov, former Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) investigations chief, say that the current terrorist free-for-all in Jenin and Tulkarem, for example, proves that released terrorists must be expelled as far away as possible. Otherwise, they will bolster the already-solid, Iranian-backed military machine that terrorists have built in these areas, and will expand them.
Either way, the danger of mass-releasing Palestinian terrorists is clear. A deal that frees vicious murderers of Israeli Jews including the Nukhba killers and rapists of October 7 in exchange for Israel’s innocent suffering hostages endangers even more Israeli lives down the road – and that road is not notably long.
Note: I published a different and more detailed version of this article last August.
- David M. Weinberg
It’s Trump time: Handcuffs off versus Hamas and Iran. Therefore, hostilities are about to escalate – yes “escalate” – purposefully and usefully so. Israel’s use of force will be overwhelming – necessarily so. The international community can and will scream about the need for “immediate” ceasefires, but Israeli leaders will ignore global received wisdom – appropriately and defiantly so.
Published in The Jerusalem Post, January 10, 2025; and Israel Hayom, January 13, 2025. Print-friendly copy
Cartoon: Dry Bones (JNS.org)What does American backing for Israel mean in the current wars? Hopefully, the scope and depth of American backing will improve dramatically in the move this month from President Joe Biden to President Donald Trump.
From the day that Hamas savagely attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, the Biden administration has backed Israel in its counterattack to rout Hamas and end Hamas rule in Gaza. The US has given Israel weapons and diplomatic support, blocking dozens of anti-Israel resolutions at the UN, as well as providing negotiation services in the attempt to obtain hostage release.
At the same time, however, Washington unpardonably has insisted that Israel fuel Gaza (read: Hamas), literally and figuratively, every step of the way. It has forced Israel to supply an enemy in wartime with hundreds of thousands of tons of goods ranging from cigarettes and flour to fuel.
Everybody but everybody knows and admits (even UN chiefs and fierce anti-Israel “humanitarian” NGOs) that Hamas has absconded much if not most of the supplies trucked-in by Israel, which Hamas then sells to its “own people” (i.e., poor Palestinian civilians) at exorbitant prices – to fuel the Hamas war effort, to keep itself in power, and to continue to torture Israel as Israeli hostages die out, day by day.
The US also counterproductively has restrained the Israeli military. It has been annoyingly mistaken every step of the way, riding Israel’s brakes. Don’t invade Gaza City, said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan – speaking in Biden’s name. Don’t take Shifa Hospital. Don’t enter Khan Yunis. Don’t take Rafah or the Philadelphi Corridor. Don’t try to move civilian populations from the battle zones. Don’t use large-diameter or heavy ordnance bombs. Don’t, don’t, don’t…
The net result of the delays and restraints imposed by America has been the grind in which the IDF now finds itself: A house-by-house slog through Hamas hideouts that is drawing precious blood with Israeli soldiers needlessly falling almost every day – without there being a decisive result.
In the operations in northern Gaza since October aimed at clearing terrorists from Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya – again – more than 80 soldiers have been killed. Tragic and outrageously avoidable.
And sure enough, despite Israel’s (unfortunately shackled) effort, Hamas retains administrative and terrorist capabilities in northern Gaza, and in southern Gaza cities like Rafah where the IDF was forced by America to tiptoe through the tulips; not to mention the fact that the IDF has not yet operated in 30% of Gaza.
In short, Biden wanted Israel to win the war but simultaneously undermined Israel’s ability to win the war truly.
ALL THIS is of a piece with Biden’s mania for regional de-escalation. After Iran fired hundreds of missiles toward Israel last April and October (assaults that fortunately were scuttled by Israeli, US and other forces), Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US “would not be involved” in any Israeli counteroffensive against Iran.
His spokesman said “We don’t seek a wider war in the region. We don’t seek escalated tensions in the region. We don’t seek a wider conflict. We don’t seek a war with Iran.”
America went on to assure its European and Mideast allies and the Iranians that it “was not involved” in Israel’s intensive campaign of strikes against Hezbollah missile depots and military installations; “not involved” in the Israeli strike on senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil; “not involved” in the beeper bombing of Hezbollah operatives; “not involved” in the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran or Hezbollah chieftain Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, etc.
Each time, the US predictably prattled that the US “was not involved,” and that it “does not want to see an escalation.”
You get the picture: America has not sufficiently backstopped Israel with American commitment and power in the confrontation against Iran and its terrorist proxies. Rather, its de-escalation mantra has hemmed-in and handcuffed Israel.
Like the Obama administration, the Biden-Harris administration all along and even since October 7, still has sought to reset the region through conciliation with and concession to Iran, not confrontation. It has postured the US less as the leader of a regional coalition against Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” and more as a mediator between it and Israel.
The problem is that you cannot defeat evil, never mind truly crush Hamas alone, by posing as a mediator and fetishizing de-escalation.
FORTUNATELY, the neutering by Israel of Hezbollah and the collapse of the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria, as well as the stripping naked of Iranian air defenses by the IAF (a strike, once again nonsensically opposed by the US), makes space for a different policy. Even Blinken belatedly admitted this week (in a self-congratulatory New York Times interview) that Israel has wrought a “Mideast transformation.” No thanks to him.
This now allows for an even more decisive reset of the regional strategic architecture; a reset that will neutralize the Iranian nuclear juggernaut and counter Iran’s hegemonic march across the region.
With President Donald Trump returning to the White House in ten days’ time, there is reason to believe that he will give Israel room to maneuver, meaning the American backing or active collaboration necessary to truly cut Iran down to size, something that blessedly might lead to regime change in that country.
This also entails freeing Israel from the burden of fueling Hamas – what the international community naively (or mendaciously) insists on calling “humanitarian aid” to Gaza when it is far more than that. I expect that after January 20, Israel will act to deny Hamas of this supply lifeline.
The IDF will completely clear northern Gaza of civilians and re-direct civilian supplies to southern Gaza only, use massive ordnance to eliminate residual Hamas terrorist cells and infrastructures, and finally clear the way, perhaps, for Palestinian governance that is not under the Hamas thumb.
One hopes and assumes that we will not hear from Trump administration officials the insidious Kamala Harris qualifier “but” – which conditions Israel’s legitimacy and strips it of the ability to defeat its enemies.
Outgoing Vice President Harris allowed that Israel “could” defend itself, “but how it does matters.” Repeatedly she said: “Israel has the right to defend itself, but too many innocent Palestinians have been killed, children, mothers…”
Each time, she went on to proclaim that Israel could fight “only” if this leads rapidly towards a two-state solution “where the Palestinians have security, self-determination, and the dignity they so rightly deserve.”
Since no one in Washington has a recipe for defeating an enemy that hides behind and beneath civilians without causing significant collateral damage, and nobody in the region any longer believes that swift establishment of a full-fledged Palestinian state truly would bring stability or peace – Kamala’s “but” and “only” lingo effectively neutered the IDF and weakened Israel.
Again, one hopes and assumes that Trump, incoming Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio will adopt an entirely different tone and more resolute policies. I suspect that is what Trump means when he says that if Hamas does not immediately release all Israeli hostages “all hell will break loose in Gaza.” Handcuffs off.
Readers should consider this article a strategic warning. The current interregnum in intense combat in Gaza, as well as what appears to be a pause in confrontation with Iran, is about to end.
Hostilities are about to escalate – yes “escalate” – purposefully and usefully so. Israel’s use of force will be overwhelming – necessarily so. The international community can and will scream about the need for “immediate” ceasefires, but Israeli leaders will ignore global received wisdom – appropriately and defiantly so.
- David M. Weinberg
Looking ahead, I see knockback against Iran, conflict with Turkey, a deal with Saudi Arabia, continuing impasse over the haredi draft, and ever-higher taxes.
Published in The Jerusalem Post, January 3, 2025; and Israel Hayom, January 5, 2025. Print-friendly copy
Image by Gerd Altmann from PixabayThe perils of predicting political and diplomatic developments are well known, especially in the Middle East. “Black Swan” events seem par for the course (i.e., events that are highly improbable, difficult to predict, and end up having drastic consequences – like the Hamas October 7 attack).
In my crystal ball column of January 2022, I did foresee tough combat ahead. I wrote that “Israel is likely to wage this year a multifaceted war against Iran’s terrorist proxies in the region – Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad – in successive or simultaneous fashion. A full-scale IDF operation to degrade enemy capabilities in Lebanon and Gaza is just a question of time, and this needs to be done before directly striking at Iran in Iran.”
I then further wondered “whether Washington would give Israel full-throated backing in such circumstances of intense ground combat, with all the civilian casualties this will entail.”
The good news here is that President Donald Trump is returning the White House in two weeks’ time, and there is reason to believe that he will give Israel room to maneuver, meaning an opportunity to finish-off Hamas in decisive fashion, and the American backing necessary to truly cut Iran down to size.
This entails freeing Israel from the burden of providing “humanitarian aid” to an enemy in Gaza during wartime (as outgoing President Biden illogically has insisted, something that only has kept Hamas in power), and providing Israel with the massive ordnance required destroy Iran’s nuclear bomb facilities.
Indeed, this is the year (even the season, winter-spring, meaning now) to tackle Iran, when it is at a nadir and before it goes fully nuclear. Iran’s proxies on Israel’s borders have been mostly eviscerated (see below) and Tehran has been stripped naked (by Israel) of its Russian-supplied air defense systems. President Trump can and probably will further weaken Iran with renewed “maximum sanctions.”
I cannot believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu will forgo the historic opportunity to complete his 25-year-long campaign against Iranian domination without a game-changing crushing blow on Iran, a pièce de resistance, which might also blessedly lead to regime change in that country.
In short, there is an opportunity at hand to overwhelmingly reset the regional strategic architecture beyond the knockback already delivered to Iran’s so-called “Shiite arc” or “circle of fire” against Israel.
The dreaded Third Lebanon War is now essentially over, with Hezbollah having lost most of its heavy missiles and its political-military leadership including its all-powerful, longstanding leader. (I predicted the demise of Hassan Nasrallah and Yihye Sinwar. In 2022, I wrote that “Yihye Sinwar will go the way of Saleh al-Arouri and discover that there are no virgins waiting for him in the next world. Hassan Nasrallah will get the chance to make a similar discovery.”)
Bashar Assad has been pushed out of power too, fleeing like a rat for his life from Syria to Russia. Might Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Yemen and Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani in Syria be next?
The Turkish dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan will demand significant attention over the coming year, meaning that somebody is going to have to counter his Ottoman-style hegemonic ambitions and ruthless inclinations. Already he has occupied a swath of northern Syria; he seeks to dominate the entire country (through Al-Jolani) and threaten Israel from there; and he is preparing to carry out genuine genocide against Kurdish forces and Kurdish civilians (not the fictitious genocide of which Erdogan has accused Israel) – unless Tayyip is stopped by Trump, and maybe Israel too.
AS I ACCURATELY predicted, the Israel’s new peace treaties with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have held firm, despite the Biden administration’s lack of enthusiasm for the Abraham Accords and despite the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. This is the year that a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli accord will be reached. It is one of Trump’s top priorities and is well within reach.
Israel will have to swallow some bitter pills to facilitate this, like acquiescence to the US sale of F-35 fighter jets to Riyadh and acceptance of a US-backed Saudi civilian nuclear program. Netanyahu may also have to mutter something about a “pathway” to Palestinian independence in the distant future even though neither he nor the Saudis believe this is feasible or sensible.
For Trump, everything is transactional, and so he will expect Israel to play ball regarding a Saudi deal along these lines. If Israel does so, it will be well placed to expect a return from Trump down the line on issues closer to home, ranging from Israeli assertion of sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria to pushback against nasty international organizations that are at Israel’s throat.
Advocates of a strong America and an even stronger US-Israel alliance can only be thrilled about Trump’s picks for key administration posts in defense (Pete Hegseth), national security (Michael Waltz, John Ratcliffe), and foreign affairs (Marco Rubio, Elise Stefanik, and Mike Huckabee). But remember: The likelihood that these people will serve four full years alongside Trump is negligible.
In his first term, Trump hired and fired his top lieutenants frequently. Remember H.R. McMaster, James Mattis, John Bolton, Michael Flynn, and Rex Tillerson? Only Mike Pompeo lasted a full term (first as CIA director and then as secretary of state), and alas he has not been given a senior post in the new administration.
Still on the international scene, hopefully this will be the year that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Pope Francis will take early retirement. Each has tacked to the hard anti-Israel camp with a series of incendiary comments. Isn’t it nice that the World Jewish Congress and European Jewish Congress awarded these very unfriendly figures with their highest awards in 2020 and 2022?
BACK AT HOME in Israel, last year I predicted that Israel would have to increase its defense budget from 60 to 90 billion shekels (from 16 to 25 billion dollars), with large chunks earmarked for a full year of combat in Gaza and Lebanon, long stints of military duty for reservists, rehabilitation of injured soldiers, massive production and stockpiling of ammunition, and for military strike planning on Iran.
Well, that is out the window. The defense budget this past year skyrocketed to NIS 190 billion (not including support for Israelis displaced from the Negev and Galilee), and in 2025 the budget will likely stand at NIS 150 billion (including the annual US defense package).
And that is before the Nagel Committee hits us this month with its recommendations for military restructuring and defense allocations for the next decade. The committee is going to insist that Israel hike spending on defense from 5 to 7.5 percent of GDP, which means tens of billions of shekels more.
Those of us who yesterday completed eight days of saying the Al HaNissim prayer for miracles, can start today saying an Al haMissim prayer for help with handling the massive new taxes that will surely be our burden for years to come. (Nissim means miracles; Missim means taxes).
It would be nice to believe that the trauma and suffering of the past 15 months would shock the haredi (Ultra-Orthodox) community out of its crushingly insular shell and nudge it forward towards national service, but nada. It has not happened to any significant degree nor will it.
Haredi elders (inevitably they are 90+ year old scholars locked into an ideological framework that mistakenly posits spiritual primacy of their Torah study above all else) are incapable of adjusting to the realities and necessities of Jewish statehood.
I see no solution for this painful issue, no matter what draft/draft exemption law is passed in this Knesset or the next; no matter what sanctions are imposed on haredi families and institutions. This is an historic grand tragedy that has the potential to crash the modern State of Israel, no less, in the Heavens and on earth.
(I don’t dismiss the slew of impressive efforts to integrate older haredi men and women in soft military and civilian-security frameworks, but this only nibbles at the edges of the need which is large-scale draft to the fighting army of 18-26-year-old haredi men.)
If there is hope on the horizon for Israel, it comes from those brave soldiers and their families, and from social activists and volunteers, who are the real heroes of the past 15 months of war.
I hope and pray that down the road – say, in 2028 elections – they will emerge as better unifiers with a vision of wholesome Israeli renaissance and nationalist resurgence. They are the proof that mainstream Israeli society is strong, its faith robust, and its grit undiminished.
- David M. Weinberg
Time to re-engage in the fight for Israel with passion and conviction, not apologetics or apprehension. A new film and book show the way.
Published in The Jerusalem Post, December 27, 2024; and in abridged form in Israel Hayom, December 30, 2024. Print-friendly copy
From Jew-hater to Jewish believer and supporter of Israel: Lebanese-Syrian activist Rawan Osman, star of the new film “Tragic Awakening.” (Photo credit: Meir Elipur.)Over the past 15 years and especially since the atrocities of October 7, annihilationist Palestinianism has become the rave in some “progressive” circles, especially among hard-left rioters on Western campuses. This means dismissal of Jewish/Zionist rootedness in the Land of Israel and adoption of the Palestinian campaign to delegitimize and destroy Israel. “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.”
Palestinianism is an ideology and an identity invented by the KGB and advanced by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas ever since he rejected John Kerry’s 2014 peace initiative. It makes conflict in the Land of Israel a zero-sum game.
It fabricates Palestinian inhabitance of Israel going back to the Canaanites and Philistines of the Bible; it inverts Arab rejection and invasion of young Israel in 1948 and the expulsion of Jews from Arab lands by claiming a Palestinian “Nakba”; it turns the Temple Mount into Haram ash-Sharif, denying any Jewish history in Jerusalem and the Land of Israel; and it converts genocidal assaults on the People of Israel like Hamas’ Simchat Torah attack into heroic acts that must be celebrated by all freedom seekers.
In short, Palestinianism is violence against Israeli/Jewish indigenousness in the land of Israel. It savages the core identity of Jews and Israelis. It is an offensive to deny the most basic building blocks of Jewish connection to Jerusalem and Israel. It seeks to strip justice and authenticity from Israel’s very existence, and to upend Israel’s alliance with the human-rights-supporting, democratic world.
And as we have seen over the past year, it directly leads to violent antisemitic battering of Jews and Jewish institutions around the world.
We got a whiff of what was coming back in 2018 when UNESCO passed, davka on Chanukah, a series of nonsensical resolutions (proposed by Abbas), declaring Jerusalem an exclusively Moslem heritage city and criminalizing Israel’s custodianship of the holy city.
Most European nations, those great paragons of “peace” and “love” for Jews, went along with that affront, either voting for or abstaining on the denialist resolutions. Then they doubled down on such perfidy by adopting a similar resolution in the UN General Assembly in 2021.
Then-US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman responded to the UN disgrace by tweeting that “More than 2,000 years ago, Jewish patriots (Maccabees) captured Jerusalem, purified the Holy Temple and rededicated it as a house of Jewish worship. The UN can’t vote away the facts: Jerusalem is the ancient and modern capital of Israel. Happy Chanukah from this blessed city!”
Alas, the gangs rampaging today against Jews and Israelis in the streets of Berlin, London, Montreal, and Sydney have swallowed every bit of Abbas’ bile about exclusive Arab rights to Israel. They ignore the fact that Abbas’ gangs have destroyed Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus, sought to destroy Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem, have run Christians out of Bethlehem, and have wantonly dug-up and destroyed thousands of years of Jewish archeological treasures on the Temple Mount.
WHAT DO YOU DO in the face of such defamation and betrayal? What do you do when the Big Lie is evident everywhere?
First, you act to introduce realism and truth-telling to the global dynamic by re-asserting the Jewish People’s profound historic and national rights in Israel and Jerusalem. You insist on a narrative that proclaims incontrovertible indigenous Jewish rights in Israel. You push back against anti-Israel denialism by reinforcing Israel’s sovereign hold on all parts of Israel.
This begins with recapturing a sense of outrage about anti-Zionist and anti-Jewish sentiment. After 2,000 years of demonization and persecution, Jews and Zionists in the 21st century no longer have bear body blows on a regular basis! We are no longer powerless. It is time to re-engage in the fight for Israel with passion and conviction, not apologetics or apprehension.
From a hasbara (public diplomacy) perspective, it is not enough to explain Israel’s security dilemmas or revisit Israel’s past diplomatic generosity towards the Palestinians. What is needed is a much more basic restatement of Israel’s cause and purpose: Israel as a grand historic reunion of people and land; as the Jewish People’s contribution to science, technology, arts and culture in the modern world; and Israel as a reliable anchor for democracy in a dangerous part of the world.
I think that Israel wins when you speak about justice and the Jewish nation.
Second, in the face of betrayal and peril, you act with overwhelming military power to reset the regional strategic architecture and reinforce Israeli deterrence. Israel is now doing this across all its borders, and a fierce takedown of Iran is surely next.
Of course, this presents a heightened hasbara challenge for advocates for Israel –which must be met defiantly and unwaveringly.
For Zionists and advocates of Israel there is no choice but to own-up to Israel’s strength. They must affirm it and articulate how that strength is justifiably and wisely being used to fight Iran, Islamic jihadism, and annihilationist-against-Israel Palestinianism.
Remember David Ben-Gurion’s famous adage about the messianic era when the lion will lie down with the lamb, as per Isaiah? “That will be great,” said Ben-Gurion, “as long as Israel is the lion”!
So, supporters of Israel cannot apologize; cannot be shy about Israeli military prowess. They must articulate the reasons why Israel must be the “lion” and use crushing force to deter enemies and defend its homeland.
I have found that forthright talk has a salutary impact. Without being nasty or unfeeling regarding Israel’s adversaries, one can convey a deep sense of sincerity by articulating core Zionist commitments and clarifying Israeli red lines. People are forced to respect that, even if they may not impute to Israel spectacular charity.
Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.
WHEN SEEKING SOLACE and affirmation in these trying times, I also draw inspiration from intelligent and courageous non-Jewish allies. They should be acknowledged and encouraged.
The Emiratis are an excellent example of far-sightedness and friendship. The Emiratis do not bemoan colonialism in their past. They do not wail about anti-Arab discrimination, wallow in negativity, or seek scapegoats. They believe in hard work and in using one’s riches (be they intellectual riches or oil riches) for the betterment of one’s own people. From this perspective, cooperation with Israel is a win-win situation for the Emiratis, and they honorably have abided by their peace treaty with Israel despite global and regional assaults on Israel.
Indeed, in repeat visits to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, I have found that Emiratis respect Israelis for their faithfulness to Jewish tradition, for their belief in the power of Jewish history, for their loyalty to ancient heritage and unique national identity. Believe it or not, the Emiratis seem to understand – perhaps better than we do ourselves, sometimes – that these anchors of identity are the greatest source of strength and authenticity.
Another shining example of intellectual honesty towards Israel and courage is the Lebanese-Syrian activist Rawan Osman (pictured above), who features in the jaw-dropping new documentary film Tragic Awakening: A New Look at the Oldest Hatred. Osman details her journey from Jew-hater to Jewish believer and supporter of Israel, on the background of an intellectual investigation into the roots of ancient and modern antisemitism.
Brilliantly produced by my friends (and former fellow Canadians) rabbis Raphael Shore of OpenDor Media and Shalom Schwartz of the Aseret Movement, the film offers a bold answer to the question: Why the Jews? Their answer is a classic Jewish answer, the Talmudic answer: Sinah (hatred) of Jews stems from Sinai, meaning that Jewish morals and teachings sourced in the Torah are an “affront” to some in the world. Jew-haters hate Judaism’s empowering, soaring, disruptive message. (That certainly was the case for Adolf Hitler.)
Run and see the film, and/or read Rabbi Shore’s provocative new book on which it is based, Who’s Afraid of the Big Bad Jews? Learning to Love the Lessons of Jew-Hatred. He argues that the best response to those who hate Jews is to embrace Judaism, appreciate its grandeur, and benefit from it. As the late Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks taught: Non-Jews most respect Jews who are self-respecting.
In any case, it is wonderful that deep-thinking and brave figures like Rawan Osman can rise beyond the decrepit teachings fed to her during her Arab adolescent years.
I take inspiration also from Indigenous activists like Nova Peris of Australia. A double-gold Olympic champion and former Member of Parliament who is lionized and recognized by everyone Down Under, she has become one of Israel’s most outspoken defenders.
Nova electrifies listeners with her discourse on proud Aboriginal identity and Indigenous claims to ancestral lands, making an explicit comparison between the struggle of her First Nations communities and the struggle of the Jewish People for respect and for reclamation of its ancient homeland, Israel.
“The history of the Jewish People reminds me that strength comes not just from right but from purpose, faith, and resilience,” says Nova.
Yes, indeed, in these darks days there are smart, good people who unapologetically stand with Israel. We must take heart and determine to win all our wars unapologetically and smartly too, Maccabean style, ka-yamim hahem bazman hazeh, as in the days of old in these very times.
