Chapter 1 Introduction   25

are faced with situations of organized complexity in which problems are complicated and
interconnected, there is much uncertainty and ambiguity, and they must deal with opposing
views and conflicting interests. Therefore, strategic problems have no clearly identifiable
correct solutions, but must be tackled by debating the alternatives and selecting the most
promising option. Mason and Mitroff call on strategists to systematically doubt the value
of all available solutions and to employ dialectics – which is exactly the approach taken
in this book. In the context of this chapter, the most important message that Mason and
Mitroff have is that the variety of opinions might make things more complex, but is also a
useful resource for finding better quality solutions.
The second reading is a 2005 Organizational Science article by Wendy Smith and
Michael Tushman: ‘Managing Strategic Contradictions’. The original article combines
insights on several strategy topics in this book, such as strategic innovation, strategizing
and strategic leadership; however, its main purpose in this chapter is to discuss why
strategists should engage in managing strategic contradictions. The authors, both from
Harvard Business School, represent the philosophy of this book well.
The last reading, ‘Cultural Constraints in Management Theories’ by Geert Hofstede,
has been selected to sow seeds of further doubt about the universal validity of strategic
management theories. Hofstede is one of the most prominent cross-cultural researchers
in the field of management and is known, in particular, for his five dimensions for
measuring cultural traits. In this reading he briefly describes the major characteristics of
management in Germany, Japan, France, Holland, South-East Asia, Africa, Russia and
China, contrasting them all to the United States, to drive home his point that management
practices differ from country to country depending on the local culture. Each national style
is based on cultural characteristics that differ sharply around the world. Hofstede argues
that theories are formulated within these national cultural contexts, and thus reflect the
local demands and predispositions. Therefore, he concludes that universal management
theories do not exist – each theory is culturally constrained. If Hofstede is right, this
re-emphasizes the necessity to view strategic management and strategy theories from an
international perspective. Readers must judge which strategy approach is best suited to the
national circumstances with which they are confronted.

READING Complexity: The nature of real

world problems
1.1 By Richard Mason and Ian Mitroff  1

T ry a little experiment. Make a short list of the

major problems or issues facing policymakers in
the world today. Now take your list and arrange it as
the process, review the matrix and count the number of
blanks. Are there any?
‘Not fair!’ you may say. ‘There were a lot of check
a matrix like the one in Figure 1.1.1. For each element marks in my matrix because many of these world
in the matrix ask yourself the following question: Is problems are linked together.’ World problems involve
the solution to one problem (the row problem) in any all nations. One would not expect to get the same result
way related to the solution of the other problem (the if the focus was, say, on one’s company, city, family,
column problem)? If the answer is yes, place a check or personal life. Really? Try it and see. Recently,
mark at the point where the row and column intersect; several managers at a major corporation tried this little
otherwise leave it blank. When you have completed experiment as part of a strategic planning effort.

1
Source: This article was adapted from Chapter 1 of R. Mason and I. Mitroff, Challenging Strategic Planning Assumptions, © John Wiley &
Sons, Inc. 1981. This material is used by permission of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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26  SECTION I Strategy

Figure 1.1.1 Problem interaction matrix

Peace

Energy

Starvation
Peace

Civil rights
Energy

Balance of payments
Population
Starvation

Civil rights

Population

Balance of payments

Among the issues and problem areas they identified ■■ These problems and issues tend to be highly
were the following: interrelated. Consequently, the solution to one problem
requires a solution to all the other problems. At the
■■ Satisfy stockholder dividend and risk requirements.
same time, each solution creates additional dimensions
■■ Acquire adequate funds for expansion from the to be incorporated in the solutions to other problems.
capital markets.
■■ Few, if any, problems can be isolated effectively for
■■ Ensure a stable supply of energy at reasonable separate treatment.
prices.
These are the characteristics of complexity. Complexity
■■ Train a corps of middle managers to assume more
literally means the condition of being tightly woven or
responsibility.
entwined together. Most policymakers find that the
■■ Develop a marketing force capable of handling new problems they face today are complex in this sense.
product lines. Moreover, almost all of today’s problems seem to be
The managers found that all of these problems and getting more plentiful and complex.
issues were related to each other. Some were only There is an especially vexing aspect of complexity
related weakly, but most were related quite strongly. as it presents itself to policymakers. It is organized. As
Repeated attempts in other contexts give the same result: we have seen in the little experiment, there tends to be
basically, every real world policy problem is related to an illusive structure underlying problems that gives
every other real world problem. This is an important pattern and organization to the whole. Organization is
finding. It means that every time a policymaker usually considered the route to the solution of a complex
attempts to solve a particular policy problem he or problem. In reality, however, organization in complexity
she must consider its potential relationship with all can become an insurmountable barrier to the solution
other problems. To do this one must have both a of a problem. This is the major challenge to real world
comprehensive set of concepts for dealing with any problem solving because we have very few intellectual
policy and a rich set of tools for acquiring the holistic tools for coping with ‘organized complexity.’
information needed to guide policy making. The tools we have available seem to work best
on simple problems, those that can be separated and
reduced to relatively few variables and relationships.
Characteristics of complexity These problems of simplicity usually have a one-
dimensional value system or goal structure that guides
There are several characteristics of policy making that
the solution. Three factors – separability, reducibility,
the foregoing little experiment is intended to illustrate:
and one-dimensional goal structure – mean that simple
■■ Any policy-making situation comprises many problems can be bounded, managed, and, as Horst
problems and issues. Rittel (1972) puts it, ‘tamed.’

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Chapter 1 Introduction   27

Ironically, problems of the utmost complexity canned vegetable – a staple in the English diet. As part
can also be tamed as long as the complexity is of the expansion plan, the company decided to build
‘disorganized.’ That is, whenever the number of a new, automated factory, requiring an investment of
variables is very large and the variables are relatively several million pounds sterling. For over a decade
disconnected, the problem can be tamed with the the company had enjoyed a 65 per cent market share
elegant simplicity of statistical mechanics. For for their product line and saw no reason for this
example, there is no known way of predicting how strong market position to deteriorate. Given this large
a given individual will vote on a political candidate. volume, the new plant offered the ‘experience curve’
However, using polling procedures and statistical advantages of economies to scale and made possible
techniques it is possible to predict with a fair degree the long production runs required to meet the demand
of confidence how an entire population of voters from the traditional market.
will vote. Similarly, it is difficult to predict whether After ground was broken, but well before the
a given customer will purchase a new product or factory was completed, a series of seemingly detached
not. However, using market research methods, a and isolated socioeconomic events occurred. These
fairly good estimate can be made of a new product’s relatively insignificant events were to change the
potential market share. destiny of the company. Taken collectively, they
Perhaps one of the greatest insights of the 20th rendered the factory economically obsolete and
century is the discovery that when a problem threw the corporate board of directors into a state of
situation meets the condition for random sampling turmoil. The scenario of events went something like
– many individual elements exhibiting independent, this. Due to the release of wartime controls on steel
probabilistic behaviour – there is a potential statistical strip and tin, a number of new small firms that could
solution to the problem. In short, disorganized economically can imported fruit sprang up. Initially,
complexity can generally be tamed by statistical they in no way competed directly with the large
means. vegetable canner. However, since their business was
One place where the assumption of disorganized seasonal, they began to look for ways to keep their
complexity has proven invaluable in the past is in machinery and labour employed during the winter.
the actuarial sciences. Today, however, the insurance Their answer came from a surprising source – the
industry is discovering that many of the risks once US quick-frozen food industry. The quick-freezing
assumed to be reasonably independent and hence process requires a substantial degree of consistency
analysable according to standard actuarial methods in the crop. This consistency is very difficult to
are no longer so. People, organizations and facilities achieve. However, it turned out that large crops of
have become more tightly woven together over wider the vegetable were grown in the United States and
geographical areas. Consequently, the probabilities of a substantial portion of US crops was unsuitable
death, accident, fire, or disaster on which the risks and for quick freezing (a big industry in the United
premiums are based are no longer as straightforward States) but quite suitable for canning. Furthermore,
as they once were. The result is that the statistical American farmers had been selling this surplus crop
methods that applied under conditions of disorganized at a very low price for animal feed and were only too
complexity have become less reliable as the system has happy to make it available at an attractive price to the
become more organized. small canners in the United Kingdom. The canners
The great difficulty with connected systems of jumped at the opportunity and imported the crop.
organized complexity is that deviations in one element Using off-season production capacity they began to
can be transmitted to other elements. In turn, these offer a low-cost product in the large canner’s market.
deviations can be magnified, modified and reverberated The small canners’ position was further strengthened
so that the system takes on a kind of unpredictable as underdeveloped countries began to vie with the
life of its own. Emery and Trist (1965) refer to this United States in an effort to become the cheapest
condition as ‘environmental connectedness’ and source of supply for the crop.
have labelled this type of environment the ‘turbulent’ These untimely events in the large canner’s supply
environment. market were compounded by events in its product
Emery and Trist cite an interesting case to illustrate market. Prior to the introduction of quick-freezing,
the nature of environmental connectedness and the the company featured a high quality, higher price
great difficulties it presents to policymakers. In Great premier brand that dominated the market. This market
Britain after World War II, a large food canning advantage, however, was diminished by the cascading
company began to expand. Its main product was a effect of several more unpredictable events. As the

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28  SECTION I Strategy

scenario unfolded the quick-frozen product captured ‘Wicked’ problems

the high quality strata of the market, a growing
dimension due to increased affluence. The smaller Today, few of the pressing problems are truly
canners stripped off the lower price layers of the problems of simplicity or of disorganized complexity.
market, aided in part by another seemingly unrelated They are more like the problems described in the
development in retailing – the advent of supermarkets. illustrative cases above and the ones we uncovered
As supermarkets and large grocery chains developed, in our little experiment: problems of organized
they sought to improve their position by establishing complexity. These problems simply cannot be tamed
their own in-house brand names and by buying in bulk. in the same way that other problems can. For this
The small canner filled this need for the supermarket reason Rittel refers to these problems of organized
chains. Small canners could undercut the price of the complexity as ‘wicked’ problems. Wicked problems
manufacturer’s brand product because they had low are not necessarily wicked in the perverse sense of
production costs and almost no marketing expenses. being evil. Rather, they are wicked like the head of
Soon supermarket house brands (which had accounted a hydra. They are an ensnarled web of tentacles. The
for less than 1 per cent of the market prior to the war) more you attempt to tame them, the more complicated
became the source of 50 per cent of the market sales. they become.
The smaller canners were the benefactors of almost all Rittel (1972) has identified several characteristic
of this growth. properties of wicked problems that distinguish them
As a result, the company’s fancy new automated from tame problems. These properties are:
factory was totally inappropriate for the current market
situation. The company’s management had failed 1 Ability to formulate the problem
to appreciate that a number of outside events were a Tame problems can be exhaustively formulated
becoming connected with each other in a way that and written down on a piece of paper.
was leading up to an inevitable general change. They b Wicked problems have no definitive formulation.
tried desperately to defend their traditional product
lines, but, in the end, this was to no avail. After a series 2 Relationship between problem and solution
of financial setbacks, the company had to change its a Tame problems can be formulated separately
mission. It reemerged several years later with a new from any notion of what their solution might be.
product mix and a new identity. Management had b Every formulation of a wicked problem
learned the hard way that their strategy problems corresponds to a statement of solution and
were neither problems of simplicity nor problems vice versa. Understanding the problem is
of disorganized complexity. They were problems of synonymous with solving it.
organized complexity.
Many corporate policy planning and strategy 3 Testability
issues exhibit this property of organized complexity. a The solution to a tame problem can be tested.
The vegetable canning company’s automated Either it is correct or it is false. Mistakes and
plant decision clearly was made under conditions errors can be pinpointed.
of organized complexity. Pricing problems also b There is no single criteria system or rule that
frequently display this characteristic. Recently, a determines whether the solution to a wicked
large pharmaceutical firm addressed the seemingly problem is correct or false. Solutions can only
simple problem of setting a price for its primary be good or bad relative to one another.
drug line. The company’s management soon
learned, however, that there was an intricate web 4 Finality
of corporate relationships woven around this one a Tame problems have closure – a clear solution
decision. Below the surface there was a structure and ending point. The end can be determined
of complex relationships between the firm’s drug by means of a test.
pricing policy and physicians, pharmacists, patients, b There is no stopping rule for wicked problems.
competitors, suppliers, the FDA and other parties. Like a Faustian bargain, they require eternal
These relationships organized the complexity of the vigilance. There is always room for improvement.
firm’s pricing decision problem. Purely analytical or Moreover, since there is neither an immediate
statistical methods were rendered inappropriate. nor ultimate test for the solution to the problem,

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Chapter 1 Introduction   29

one never knows when one’s work is done. As a 10 Responsibility

result, the potential consequences of the problem a No one can be blamed for failing to solve a
are played out indefinitely. tame problem, although solving a tame problem
may bring someone acclaim.
5 Tractability
b The wicked problem solver has ‘no right to
a There is an exhaustive list of permissible be wrong’. He is morally responsible for what
operations that can be used to solve a tame he is doing and must share the blame when
problem. things go wrong. However, since there is
b There is no exhaustive, enumerable list of no way of knowing when a wicked problem
permissible operations to be used for solving a is solved, very few people are praised for
wicked problem. grappling with them.

6 Explanatory characteristics Characteristics of wicked problems. Most policy

planning and strategy problems are wicked problems of
a A tame problem may be stated as a ‘gap’
organized complexity. These complex wicked problems
between what ‘is’ and what ‘ought’ to be and
also exhibit the following characteristics:
there is a clear explanation for every gap.
1 Interconnectedness. Strong connections link each
b Wicked problems have many possible
problem to other problems. As a result, these
explanations for the same discrepancy.
connections sometimes circle back to form feedback
Depending on which explanation one chooses,
loops. ‘Solutions’ aimed at the problem seem
the solution takes on a different form.
inevitably to have important opportunity costs and
7 Level of analysis side effects. How they work out depends on events
beyond the scope of any one problem.
a Every tame problem has an identifiable,
certain, natural form; there is no need to 2 C o m p l i c a t e d n e s s . Wi c k e d p r o b l e m s h ave
argue about the level of the problem. The numerous important elements with relationships
proper level of generality can be found for among them, including important ‘feedback loops’
bounding the problem and identifying its root through which a change tends to multiply itself or
cause. perhaps even cancel itself out. Generally, there are
b Every wicked problem can be considered various leverage points where analysis and ideas
as a symptom of another problem. It has for intervention might focus, as well as many
no identifiable root cause; since curing possible approaches and plausible programmes
symptoms does not cure problems, one is of action. There is also a likelihood that different
never sure the problem is being attacked at programmes should be combined to deal with a
the proper level. given problem.
3 Uncertainty. Wicked problems exist in a dynamic
8 Reproducibility and largely uncertain environment, which creates
a A tame problem can be abstracted from the real a need to accept risk, perhaps incalculable risk.
world, and attempts can be made to solve it Contingency planning and also the flexibility to
over and over again until the correct solution is respond to unimagined and perhaps unimaginable
found. contingencies are both necessary.
b Each wicked problem is a one-shot operation. 4 Ambiguity. The problem can be seen in quite
Once a solution is attempted, you can never different ways, depending on the viewer’s personal
undo what you have already done. There is no characteristics, loyalties, past experiences, and even
trial and error. on accidental circumstances of involvement. There
is no single ‘correct view’ of the problem.
9 Replicability
5 Conflict. Because of competing claims, there is
a The same tame problem may repeat itself many often a need to trade off ‘goods’ against ‘bads’
times. within the same value system. Conflicts of interest
b Every wicked problem is essentially unique. among persons or organizations with different or

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30  SECTION I Strategy

even antagonistic value systems are to be expected. problem there is a variety of classes of expertise.
How things will work out may depend on interaction Every affected party is an expert on some aspect of the
among powerful interests that are unlikely to enter problem and its solution. Furthermore, the disparate
into fully cooperative arrangements. parties are bound together in a common venture. Thus
6 Societal constraints. Social, organizational and some form of collective risk sharing is needed in order
political constraints and capabilities, as well as to deal effectively with the consequences of wicked
technological ones, are central both to the feasibility problems. This suggests the need for a substantial
and the desirability of solutions. degree of involvement in the policy-making process
by those potentially affected by a policy in its
These characteristics spell difficulty for the formulation process. Effective policy is made with,
policymaker who seeks to serve a social system by or if adequate representation is present, for, but not at
changing it for the better. Policymakers must choose people. At least those involved should be able to voice
the means for securing improvement for the people their opinion on the relative goodness or badness of
they serve. They must design, steer and maintain proposed solutions.
a stable social system in the context of a complex The diversity of parties at stake is related to the
environment. To do this, they require new methods second implication. Since much of the necessary
of real world problem-solving to guide their policy- information for coping with wicked problems resides in
making activities. Otherwise, they run the risk of the heads of several individuals, methods are needed to
setting their social systems adrift. obtain this information from them and to communicate
it to others. This means that as many of the different
Implications for policy making. The wicked sources of information as possible must be identified.
problems of organized complexity have two major The relevant information must be obtained from each
implications for designing processes for making and stated in an explicit manner.
policy: Contained in the minds of each participant in a
1 There must be a broader participation of affected wicked problem are powerful notions as to what is,
parties, directly and indirectly, in the policy making what ought to be, why things are the way they are,
process. how they can be changed, and how to think about
their complexity. This represents a much broader
2 Policy making must be based on a wider spectrum
class of information than is commonly used to solve
of information gathered from a larger number of
problems of simplicity or of disorganized complexity.
diverse sources.
Also, this participant-based information is less likely
Let us consider each of these implications in turn. to have been stated and recorded in a communicable
The first implication indicates that policy making is form. Consequently, this information must be
increasingly becoming a political process; political ‘objectified’ – explicitly, articulated – so that the
in the sense that it involves individuals forming into basis for each party’s judgements may be exchanged
groups to pursue common interests. Turn again to the with others. Objectification has the advantages of
results of the little experiment conducted at the outset being explicit, providing a memory, controlling
of this chapter. You will find that in almost every case the delegation of judgements, and raising pertinent
there are a variety of individual interests at stake in issues that might have been ignored otherwise. It also
each problem area cited. Furthermore, one of the major stimulates doubt.
factors creating the linkages between problem areas – To be in doubt about a piece of information is to
organizing their complexity – is the number of diverse withhold assent to it. Given the range of diverse
individual interests that cut across problem areas. information that characterizes a wicked problem,
Individuals are part of the problem and hence must be participants in the policy-making process are well
part of the solution. advised to develop a healthy respect for the method
This means that the raw material for forging of doubt. In dealing with problems of organized
solutions to wicked problems is not concentrated in complexity one should start with Descartes’ rule: ‘The
a single head, but rather is widely dispersed among first precept was never to accept a thing as true until I
the various parties at stake. For any given wicked knew it was such without a single doubt.’ This does not

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Chapter 1 Introduction   31

mean that one should be a ‘nay sayer’ or a permanent wicked problems of organized complexity is that they
sceptic. To do so would impede responsible action that must ultimately be dealt with in their totality. This calls
must be taken. What it does imply is that one should for holistic thinking. Analysis is only an aid toward
withhold judgement on things until they have been reaching a synthesis.
tested. A second characteristic of these problems is that
All problem-solving methods presuppose some there is some form of latent structure within them.
form of guarantor for the correctness of their solutions. They are organized to some extent. Organization is not
Problems of simplicity can be tested and solutions an all or nothing phenomenon. Consequently, systems
guaranteed by means of repeated solving, just as a thinking and methods can be used to gain better insight
theorem is proven in mathematics. This is because into the structural aspects of wicked problems.
simple problems can be stated in closed form. The
solutions to problems of disorganized complexity can Quest for new methods. The nature and
implications of organized complexity suggest some
be guaranteed within some stated confidence interval
new criteria for the design of real world problem-
or degree of risk because the problems are statistical in
solving methods. These criteria are:
nature. However, since there are no clearly identifiable
correct solutions to problems of organized complexity, 1 Participative. Since the relevant knowledge
neither analytic nor statistical proofs can guarantee necessary to solve a complex problem and also
results. For solutions to wicked problems, the method the relevant resources necessary to implement the
of doubt is the best guarantor available. solution are distributed among many individuals, the
Dialectics and argumentation are methods of methods must incorporate the active involvement of
systematizing doubt. They entail the processes of: groups of people.
1 making information and its underlying assumptions 2 Adversarial. We believe that the best judgement on
explicit; the assumptions in a complex problem is rendered
2 raising questions and issues toward which different in the context of opposition. Doubt is the guarantor.
positions can be taken; 3 Integrative. A unified set of assumptions and
3 gathering evidence and building arguments for and a coherent plan of action are needed to guide
against each position; effective policy planning and strategy making.
4 attempting to arrive at some final conclusion. Participation and the adversarial process tend
to differentiate and expand the knowledge base.
Being fundamentally an argumentative process, these Something else is needed to bring this diverse but
four processes are inherent to policy making. For relevant knowledge together in the form of a total
every policy decision there are always at least two picture.
alternative choices that can be made. There is an
argument for and against each alternative. It is by 4 Managerial mind supporting. Most problem-
weighing the pros and cons of each argument that an solving methods and computer aids focus on
informed decision can be reached. In policy making ‘decision support systems,’ that is, on systems
these processes of dialectics and argumentation are that provide guidance for choosing a particular
inescapable. course of action to solve a particular decision
In addition to the need for participation by a variety problem. Problems of organized complexity, as
of parties and the existence of diverse information we have seen, are ongoing, ill structured, and
sources, two other characteristics of wicked problems generally ‘wicked.’ The choice of individual
should be noted. One is that they must be dealt with in courses of action is only a part of the manager’s
a holistic or synthetic way as well as in an analytic way. or policymaker’s need. More important is the
Two processes are necessary: to subdivide a complex need to achieve insight into the nature of the
problem into its elements and to determine the nature complexity and to formulate concepts and world
of the linkages that give organization to its complexity views for coping with it. It is the policymaker’s
– the task of analysis; and to understand the problem as thinking process and his or her mind that needs to
a whole – the task of synthesis. A critical dimension of be supported.

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