POM Quantifying Reliability
In research papers, reliability in your references are indicated by the trustworthiness of
your resources and timeliness of the information. Yet, never have I thought that there is a way
to quantify reliability. Why do I need that? Well to make my papers more reliable and get the
best results in my research.
In the product and design point-of-view, reliability is defined differently. Product
reliability is important not only to the production, but also to the consumers. Measuring product
reliability tells you how well those products will perform and for how long. When brands offer
warranties, customers view these as manufacturers not trusting their own product reliability. On
the other hand, this can also be viewed as businesses taking accountability for any product
malfunction in the future and their dedication to customer service.
Testing product reliability helps the manufacturers identify the problems before
introducing it to the marketplace, preventing public relations problems. If publications and
website review your product and find flaws, it might take months or years to recover. It also spots
design or production flaws that would cause failure and potential injuries to consumers (Milano,
2017).
How can we measure reliability? it is by incorporating reliability to probability. Therefore,
we can define reliability as a measure of the ability of a product, service, part, or system to
perform its intended function under a prescribed set of conditions (Stevenson, 2018) In effect,
reliability is a probability (Stevenson, 2018).
Let us not forget that when using probability analysis, we have to identify our
independent variables. William Stevenson’s book “Operations and Management,” identified
three rules of probability.
These are the following:
Rule 1: If two or more events are independent and success is defined as the probability that all
events occur, then the probability of success is equal to the product of the probabilities of the
events.
Example: Cola-cola Company has three major divisions in their factory. Each division is
operated by one major machine. The success of their production depends on the efficiency of all
three machineries. The three machines are all independent of each other. The probability that
the 1st machine would work is 85%. The second machine has 94% probability of success. Lastly,
the third machine operates at 79% probability of success. To compute for the probability that the
production process would work efficiently, we must multiply all independent variables and come
up with the final probability value. To compute, .85*.94*.79 equals .63121 or 63.121 percent.
Rule 2. If two events are independent and success is defined as the probability that at least one
of the events will occur, the probability of neither one plus 1.00 minus that probability multiplies
by the other probability.
Example: Going back to the first machinery of Coca cola company, the machine has an
alternative. In case the machine would not work, the production officer can use the back-up
machine to continue the operations. The first machine has 85% probability, and the back-up
machine has 95% probability. To compute, .85+(1-.85)*.95=.9925 or 99.25 percent is the
probability of success.
Rule 3. If two or more events are involved and success is defined as the probability that at least
one of the occurs, the probability of success is 1-p (all fail).
Example: It turns out the last machinery has the most important job of them all. That is
why it needed two back-up machines. The first back-up machine has 88% probability and the
second back-up has 93% probability of success. To compute,
1-[(1-.79)*(1-.88)*(1-.93)] equals .998236 or 99.8236 percent of success rate.
Overall, to apply all three rules I have come up with this diagram,
Machine 1 Machine 3
Machine 2
(Image found in google search) (Image found in google search)
(Image found in google search)
.85+(1-.85)*.95=.9925 or .94 1-[(1-.79)*(1-.88)*(1-.93)]=
99.25% .998236 or 99.8236%
99.25%*94%*99.8236%=93.1304%
In conclusion, the probability rate of success that the production will work efficiently is
93.1304%.
REFERENCES:
RELIABILITY. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Pro-
Res/Reliability.html#:~:text=Product%20reliability%20is%20important%20not,the%20reliability
%20of%20their%20products.
Stevenson, W. J. (2018). Operations Management (13th ed.). 2 Penn Plaza, NY: McGraw-Hill
Education. doi:Libgen.com
Milano, S. (2017, November 21). The Importance of Reliability Analyses Before Marketing a
Product. Retrieved from https://smallbusiness.chron.com/importance-reliability-analyses-
before-marketing-product-70079.html
Hatch, A. (2019, February 12). Product Reliability-Is It Just a Matter of Perspective? Retrieved
from https://medium.com/seek-blog/product-reliability-is-it-just-a-matter-of-perspective-
28969dddca95
